Goldman is less dovish than some.
nWe expect a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.61% (vs. 3.6% consensus). We expect a 0.37% increase in April headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.42% (vs. 3.4% consensus).
Our forecast is consistent with a 0.19% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.22% increase in core PCE in April.