US Economy

And a million snowflakes cried out in the darkness, via Politico: CNN before love-making is not his idea of a turn-on.

More on the US jobs market from Westpac’s Elliot Clarke today: The US labour market delivered again in September, as strong employment growth continued and the unemployment rate fell to a new low dating back to 1969.

Via CNN: The US Navy’s Pacific Fleet has drawn up a classified proposal to carry out a global show of force as a warning to China and to demonstrate the US is prepared to deter and counter their military actions, according to several US defense officials.

It’s NFP day again. From Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September (with a range of estimates between 150,000 to 195,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.8%.

Via Bloomie today: In 2015, Amazon.com Inc.

Via the WSJ comes the detail: Automaking The new three-country pact would require auto makers to build a greater portion of a car in North America and with higher-wage workers to avoid duties when a car crosses borders.

Great stuff today from Ray Dalio at BS: The phases of the classic deflationary debt cycle.

DXY and CNY eased last night.

The Wall Street Journal suggests that they may have: I’m not seeing it yet in my data: I use Factset rather than the Bloomberg data used by the Wall Street Journal, and so maybe there is a timing issue.

And guess where the rest went?

Via Axios: The Trump administration is planning to launch a major, “administration-wide,” broadside against China, according to two sources briefed on the sensitive internal discussions.

Via Alan Kohler today: An alliance of the American military establishment and Republican trade hawks wants to break up the connections that have become embedded between US companies and China, as part of an attempt to prevent China gaining economic, geopolitical and technological predominance.

Via an increasingly hysterical Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today: If Donald Trump and his close advisers think China’s economy is tottering on the brink and acutely vulnerable to pressure, they are sorely misinformed.

If it is you wouldn’t know it.

Via the FT: Donald Trump has moved to slap a 10 per cent tariff on about $200bn in Chinese imports beginning next week and threatened to increase the rate to 25 per cent in 2019 if no deal is reached to ease trade tensions between the US and China.

Via Nouriel Roubini today at Project Syndicate: As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed.

Some nice charts from the WSJ’s Daily Shot paint a terrific picture.

Via Westpac: The US economy delivered another strong employment gain in August, with nonfarm payrolls rising 201k.

Via Moody’s: The U.S.

Via Goldman: All of these variables are related.

It wasn’t hard, via Shane Oliver: It’s been the norm for the US budget deficit to blow out when unemployment rises (as tax revenue falls and jobless claims go up) and decline when unemployment falls.

Via the Federal Reserve: Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions Michael D.