Iron ore price

Below find a piece I wrote for Crikey this morning on China’s “war of steel”.

Markets are not enjoying the China data.

From NineMSN and the Motley Fool: There’s still every chance that an iron ore price plunge could happen this year, however I doubt that share prices will fall as heavily as they did in 2012 and 2013.

The Friday default of a tiny corporate bond in China appears to have triggered larger ripples for commodity markets.

Find below the iron ore charts for March 7, 2014: In paper markets, 12 month swaps smashed any support level and are in free-fall.

By Leith van Onselen Here’s something that I never thought that I’d see.

It’s no secret that most sell-side analysts see Fortescue Metals as a buy.

Well, you learn something every day. Australia does have a big stake in what happens in the Ukraine after all. It turns out that it is a substantial iron ore exporter. From Credit Suisse: In 2013 Ukraine exported 38 Mt of iron ore (Exhibit 20), of which 45% was shipped toChina (Exhibit 21).

Daily iron ore charts for February 6, 2014 below: Rebar futures broke support are headed further down.

The argument that Chinese steel output is at its peak gets some heavy-duty support today from Reuters: Zhang Wuzong, delegate at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and chairman of private steelmaker Shandong Shiheng Special Steel said there was no room for further expansion.

Port Hedland has released its iron ore shipments data for February and the numbers are pretty good with 27.8 million tonnes of iron ore headed out to sea, 21.3 million tonnes of which is off to China.

We already know the headline numbers from China’s NPC meeting are, on balance, Australia negative.

Here are the iron ore charts for March 5, 2013: Be aware that Dalian six month futures were largely flat on the day but I’ve shifted out to the September contract.

Find below the iron ore charts for March 4, 2013:     Rebar futures are still trading at their lows.

Find below the iron ore price tables for March 3, 2014: A marginal new low for spot, 12 month swaps have broken their mid 2013 support and Dalian futures are in free-fall.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 28, 2014:   What can I say?

UBS’s marvelously named Tom Price (pictured above on recent tour of the Pilbara) has a little note today measuring the impact on iron ore of Chinese authorities attempt to cure Beijing capital of air pollution.

From the AFR today: Vale, the world’s largest iron ore producer, will maintain cost and capital-spending austerity this year even as the outlook for prices is improving, its chief executive officer said.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 27, 2014: To my mind this is a dead cat bounce until rebar stops falling.

The SMH blog has a chart today showing a recent re-coupling of the Australian dollar and iron ore price: I noted yesterday that there has been a de-coupling of iron ore equities from the price and the renewed flexibility in the currency will be a factor.

Gina’s Rinehart’s immense gamble is almost ready: Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill iron ore project is close to finalising a $7.8 billion financing deal, sources said, a vital step towards an end-2015 start for the giant mine in Western Australia’s iron-rich Pilbara district.