Gold

10

How far can gold run?

Gold added the better part of another one percent last night and its breakout is charging along at $1329 this morning: At this stage the rally is a punt on Janet Yellen being forced to slow taper and the positive technicals of breaking through the 200DMA. In the event of a taper taper, gold will

8

What is gold saying about the Australian dollar?

Gold could be breaking out according to Goldman technicians: Gold has finally spiked higher above notable pivot resistance 1,268-1,279 where the market had stalled since late-January. The area encompasses a number of previous highs/lows since Aug. ’13 as well as the 100-dma. This has opened up risks to the 200-dma at 1,306). To put things

48

The Pascometer burns red one last time

From the Pascometer today: Gold in US dollars is back to where it was in 2010 – and of course paying no interest or dividends to those who held it over that time. Gold’s latest bubble peaked in August 2011, with this year particularly unkind to it, down 28 per cent in greenbacks, but only 16

18

Mac Bank puts the boot into gold

Another bearish gold note today, this time from Macquarie Bank: Recent commentary suggests the Fed’s position on tapering has seemed to harden. We still expect it in 1Q 2014, but that is now the latest it will be, in our view, and it could even be in December if forthcoming economic data is positive. In

7

Is gold headed for bear capitulation?

Credit Suisse argues today that gold is confronting a capitulation phase in its bear market: What is striking about a longer term chart of the gold price is just how consistent the 2002-2012 bull market was in terms of the rate of increase, the metal posting an almost 17% CAGR between 2002 and the turn

11

Bitcoin versus gold

Above is an interesting take on Bitcoins from Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. In the video, Schiff explains why Bitcoin is not “gold 2.0” but modern day alchemy (termed “tulip mania”): “While I have a lot of sympathy with what the bitcoin community is trying to achieve, I just think they

44

A green light for gold?

Cross-posted from Peter Schiff at Euro-Pacific Capital: It is rare that investors are given a road map. It is rarer still that the vast majority of those who get it are unable to understand the clear signs and directions it contains. When this happens the few who can actually read the map find themselves in

14

More gold bearishness

From Citi today: With the Syria premium effectively removed from the Gold market in early  September as the Russian brokered deal to dismantle Syrian chemical weapons capability diminished the possibility of a military intervention, the market again focused on the issue of US tapering. The Federal Reserve surprisingly kicked the tapering decision further down the road,

7

Gold is vulnerable

From ANZ a new note: The speculative community is cautious of buying back into gold. Most of the recovery off the 3-year low reached in June can be attributed to short-covering. But while the shorts have been taking profits, we are yet to see an increase in positions from investors who want to own gold.

0

ASX at the close

US markets surprised a few with the 0.8% gain yesterday, despite the government shutdown. Sentiment was boosted by some solid US manufacturing numbers and signs the republicans could be seeing the reputational damage at hand. It’s actually a huge shame we aren’t going to see Friday’s non-farm payrolls, as the indications are this would have

4

Is gold an opportunity?

From the SMH: Motley Fool’s Mike King has taken a look at the gold sector and he reckons there is some money to be made. Supply of gold is 6 per cent lower than a year ago as miners closed high cost goldmines and optimised other operations to reduce costs – even if it means lower

19

Is it time to buy gold?

Credit Suisse today asks the question on every gold bug’s mind: After printing the low of the year so far at the end of June ($1,180.50), gold has rallied 20% (although is still down -15% year to date). The turn higher was initially a function of another surge in physical buying after the slump through

15

Derivative gold crushes the real stuff

Mac Bank has neat summary of recent gold market trends today: So what have we learnt about 2Q and what does this data tell us about the outlook for gold? After all that large institutional selling was met by strong jewellery demand or retail investment demand is not that newsworthy – the sold gold has

9

Soros, Paulson abandon gold

From Bloomie this morning comes old but interesting news: SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT SOLD FULL STAKE IN SPDR GOLD TRUST IN 2Q Paulson & Co.  lowered its stake to 10.23m shares from 21.8m shares in 1Q, a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed today. QED!

22

Is the gold correction over?

Gold is at a technical crossroads: So is the correction over? Capital Economics thinks so: After collapsing as low as $1,180 per ounce on 28th June, the price of gold has been gradually picking up again and has already touched our revised year-end target of $1,320 set on that day. (See our Commodities Focus, “What

16

Gold meltdown not over

I have been bearish gold for ages now, since late last year when it was well above $1600 an ounce. I’m not a gold bug or a gold hater, it’s just another market for me and like Apple at around the same time last year Gold simply looked very bubblicious on the monthly charts which

30

Gold Driven By Financial Instability, Not Inflation

Cross-posted from Bullion Baron (Twitter: @BullionBaron) While I’ve talked about inflation adjusted targets for the Gold price, it is not my opinion that inflation or expectations of inflation have been the primary driver of the Gold market over the last half a decade. Since late 2008 the primary driver of the Gold bull market has

40

How low can gold go?

By Leith van Onselen UBS has today released research asking the question: how low can gold go? Gold has fallen $125/oz since the Fed signalled a potential wind down of its QE stimulus last week. Since the start of the 2013, the gold price in US$ is now down 26.9%. The fall in the A$

39

Gold is different

Cross-posted from Bullion Baron Just a brief post today to share a recent article on Gold by David Evans. Those who have been reading my blog long term may remember that I saw David present at the 2011 Gold Symposium and he also founded Gold Nerds, a research tool for picking stocks in the precious metals sector (a

12

Gold correction: 1970s vs today

Cross-posted from Bullion Baron The current gold correction is closing in on the length of the rout that we saw in the middle of the 1970s bull market. However, the current correction is mild in comparison if we look at the percentages lost from peak. Below figures have been calculated using the London AM Fix,

9

Gold still undervalued

Cross-posted from The Short Side of Long Topic: Is it really the end of the Gold bull…? Source: Short Side of Long Abundance of precious metals investors are either scared or in panic. They are wondering if Gold is truly in a bubble (as media has reported so many times) and weather or not the

11

Perth mint gold sales surge

From the SMH: Gold sales from Perth Mint, which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, have surged after prices plunged, adding to signs that the metal’s slump to a two-year low is spurring increased demand. “The volume of business that we’re putting through is way in excess of double what we did last week,”

14

Squid strangles gold, UST10yrs

Goldman has gone short gold and US 10 year treasuries: Gold unfazed by Cyprus, recent slowdown in US recovery  Over the past month, events in Cyprus have triggered a resurgence in Euro area risk aversion while US economic data has started to disappoint. Remarkably, gold prices are unchanged over that period, despite US 10-year TIPS

12

Time to buy gold?

Cross-posted from Sober Look. A number of strategists continue to call for significant price increases in gold. Apparently investors have been ignoring those calls. In particular hedge funds have been exiting positions in precious metals recently, driving prices lower. The chart below shows changes in holdings of GLD (gold ETF) by the two major investment

85

Could the Fed kill gold?

I had a brief off-line discussion with DFM this morning as I noted this line in his morning wrap. Watch out for non-farm payrolls tonight – a strong number could feed on the fears unearthed by the minutes and we might see a perverse reaction of equity weakness and dollar strength. It got me thinking

33

Ray Dalio on credit and gold

By Chris Becker Apart from the battalions of rent-seekers and copycats within the managed fund and hedge fund industry, there are a few “heroes” we follow closely here at MacroBusiness. Hugh Hendry, just for his acerbic wit alone is one, but unfortunately he is on a self-imposed media blackout (but check out his “greatest hits” here).

27

It’s gold for Europe

By Chris Becker Where do the markets stand now that Super Mario has unleashed the demons of inflation – or is that deflation – with the unlimited bond buying program? Let’s look at some charts from overnight, and some interesting words from probably one of the best macro hedge funds on the planet – I’ll use

22

Is gold ticking away at a QE3 bomb?

By Chris Becker The gold (in USD) spot price closed up 2% last night – not really news in a volatile commodities complex where such moves are commonplace, but something may be afoot. Here’s last night’s action where gold pipped above $1600 for the first time in several weeks: And here’s the longer term view,