Gold

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Silver is the new gold for Chinese buyers

Holders of gold in Australian dollars in the last five years have enjoyed one of the benefits of the “undollar” and that is as a hedge against currency depreciation. Its still around $1700AUD per ounce, while the Australian dollar in the same time has dropped from $1.10 to 78 cents – a 30% decline! We

16

Gold is doing great in AUD and USD

Since reaching a little over $1900USD per ounce in August 2011, the price of gold slumped in the following five years, reaching a nadir of $1046USD per ounce in December 2015. Since that bottom it has rallied over $200USD per ounce and its back with a vengeance! From ZH: Gold’s 16.1% surge in Q1 2016

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Is there gold in them thar markets?

From UBS: Australian gold equities are divided, premium for some, discount for others We see Australian gold equities factoring in a gold price of US$1,147/oz, in line with spot. However, we see the sector split, with domestic & operationally diverse producers implying relatively higher gold prices and subsequently trading at a premium to NPV. This

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Its gold, gold for Australia!

Regular readers of my morning market post might think I’m a bit too harsh on gold, the shiny but nearly useless metal – except for the aerospace industry – that seems to divide the investment community right down the middle. For years, I have advocated that holding gold, preferably in a non-derivative form, as a

7

Gold and the Fed

From Macquarie:  The evidence from previous episodes of when the Fed has began hiking is mixed. As fig 3 shows of the last 3, which were in 2004, 1999 and 1994, gold ended up higher on two occasions and lower on one. On the two it ended up higher, 1999 and 2004, it also

13

Should gold miners fear the Fed?

From Macquarie: In light of recent downward moves in the US$ gold price, the prospect of a US interest rate rise in December and the potential for a ‘normalisation’ of interest rates throughout 2016, we stress test our mid and small cap gold coverage universe. We review four key metrics – all-in sustaining costs, free

21

What to ignore regarding gold

From Karen Maley: …report from the World Gold Council, drew attention to the world’s diminishing appetite for the precious metal. According to the report from the industry body, global demand for gold plunged 12 per cent in the second quarter to its lowest level in six years on waning demand from the world’s two largest

5

Commentators butcher gold and Aussie dollar

Some pretty throwaway stuff at large yesterday on gold and the Aussie dollar. At the top was Adam Carr whose economic creatism knows no bounds: Policymakers may lament the ‘strong’ dollar, but the truth is, the dollar is already very cheap relative to fundamentals. Notwithstanding this, the recent drop in the Aussie dollar below US74c has set tongues wagging

36

Australian dollar, gold smacked

It’s awwn this morning for gold and the battler. The Aussie fell right through its post 2009 low in the mid 73s and gold collapsed: Of course gold is a another not insubstantial element in Australia’s terms of trade. For those hoping to pick up some yellow metal here is my recent post: For all of

32

Why gold is going nowhere

From Miranda Maxwell at Dad’s Army: In a volatile period for global markets, gold has been a nonstarter, failing to sustain a rally this month even as Greece proudly voted for noone-knows-precisely-what, and China’s stock market crashed causing “horror and anxiety.” …Surely that’s a time to embrace a safe haven? Indeed the US dollar hit

16

Why copper will drag gold down

by Chris Becker Dr Copper is so named because of the industrial metals usually reliable correlation with economic robustness. Higher prices indicate more economic activity as its main industrial utility rises, and vice versa. The benchmark contract for copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) recently hit a new three month low reaching $US5,745 a tonne,

11

It’s not yet time to buy gold

The AFR is reporting that UBS is pushing the local gold sector hard: Gold stocks are set to boom thanks to the gold price and merger activity, with UBS slapping a buy on its entire gold coverage list with the exception of Newcrest. UBS put out the note as the sector enjoys a boost from a wave of mergers

16

On China and gold

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. Here are snips from a long piece on gold’s role, or lack of one, over the past 60 years. The KMT’s plan to transport central bank gold to Taiwan was accidentally discovered by Western media and immediately reported. The widespread “gold run” on banks in Shanghai that ensued in

13

Will ECBQE fire up gold?

The SMH has a nice chart today: My view of gold (I traded it successfully for some years), is that it is primarily the undollar, the natural hedge against the reserve currency (or unyuan if that eventuates). As such it’s primary driver of valuation is that of its partner currency. In turn, that value derives not

27

RBA audits our gold reserves

Cross-Posted from Bullion Baron Two years ago the news was publicly broken on this site that 99.9% of Australia’s Gold reserves are stored by the Bank of England in the United Kingdom. Attempts by another blogger, interested in the whereabouts of Australia’s Gold, had been rejected by the RBA only several months earlier, “The Bank

12

The lesson in the gold slide

by Chris Becker You’ve got to get wary when sentiment on a particular asset crosses over from weak to capitulation. As the gold price (in USD) teeters on a year long support, last night’s $20USD rally notwithstanding, the sentiment surrounding the shiny metal is cratering. There are some very important lessons for investors to learn

30

Post QE outlook on gold and silver

by Jordan Eliseo, Chief Economist ABC Bullion When Seasonality Fails Gold investors were looking forward to Q3 this year. After a solid start to 2014, with gold one of the best performing assets in the 6 months to June, more upside was expected. At the time, gold prices were sitting around the USD $1315oz mark,

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Gold – is there no end to the pain?

Cross posted from ABC Bullion by Jordan Eliseo, Chief Economist If you were to make investment decisions for your portfolio based on the weight of reporting one sees in the financial news, then there’s almost no question that the gold bull market is dead and buried, and investors should sell. This week we have seen

15

Wherefore art thou gold?

By Chris Becker If you’re a long term speculator in gold, I think its apt time to ask the Pascometer to come out swinging against the “shiny useless metal”. If you’re more of an observer, and/or you consider a little slice of physical gold in your portfolio as just another form of insurance, then Cullen

13

Is it time to revisit gold? (members)

The gold market is both simple and complex. It is basically a play on the prevailing reserve currency of the day. It used to be the reserve itself, and is now the unreserve, the shadow of intrinsic value against which the extant hegemonic currency is measured. That’s the simple part. The complex part is that any

9

The truth about “gold backed” cryptocurrencies

Cross-posted from Bullion Baron Another day, another salesman tries to sell us the story that they are launching the first Gold backed cryptocurrency. On this occasion it’s Anthem Vault (founded by Anthem Blanchard, son of well known Gold advocate Jim Blanchard): Newnote Financial Corp. is pleased to announce the successful development and launch of the

13

Gold bugs to a flame

By Chris Becker Waking up this morning to see a near 4% rise in spot gold when the rest of the stocks/commodity/futures/FX complex snoozes was a pleasant surprise! But is this the start of a new bull market? There has been some interesting commentary surrounding the move behind gold. From Chris Weston at IG: Gold

6

Silver provides golden opportunity on US growth

By Chris Becker Perusing Deutsche Banks’s recent commodity research note, I stumbled across a fascinating chart showing the relationship between the gold/silver ratio (ounce to ounce price) and the clearest read of US business activity, the ISM Index: They note that : ..when the US ISM index is above 50 and hence US manufacturing sector

4

Forget gold, go platinum!

by Chris Becker With all the bearishness surrounding gold (and silver) we sometimes forget the other precious metals, namely platinum and palladium. For those unaware, palladium’s (XPD) main use is in catalytic converters and in fuel cell technology. But what’s caused the recent breakout (see charts below)? Supply. From WSJ: Palladium prices neared a 13-year

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There’s gold in that thar abyss

I haven’t yet commented upon the newest iteration of the gold crash. Down 5% or so now from its recent peak: I was never convinced by the rally given the clear and present danger represented in the Fed and that’s what’s undone it. From the AFR: Goldman Sachs Group and Societe General can thank Janet

15

Gold breakout!

Amid lackluster trading in other markets, one stood apart overnight. Gold, up two percent: The fibo retracement is behind us and we also took out the October high: The long term chart shows a nice double bottom in place too: What’s going on, then? My guess it’s largely safe haven covering on the China slowdown

1

Hedgies pile into gold

From Reuters: Hedge funds plowed into gold and crude oil as prices rallied this week, driving the bullish money wagered by commodity speculators to the highest level since 2011, data showed on Friday. Gasoline, natural gas and soybeans were other commodities that attracted huge buying during the week that ended Feb. 18, according to the

12

Gold bears growl

From the SMH blog: The two most-accurate gold forecasters are holding to their bearish forecasts for 2014 even after the metal posted its best start to a year since 1983. ‘‘I just see this as a corrective move,’’ says Robin Bhar, the head of metals research at Societe Generale in London and the most-accurate forecaster tracked