Spot gold prices continue to consolidate after an impressive 30% rally from the December 2015 lows. Chart 4 shows price is sitting on support at a year to date trend line. A close below this suggests a correction to follow. However the last few corrective moves have been bought at 1300. And so 1300, in our view, must break to have a higher conviction of a decline and may be where the stops are.
Longs have long been stretched – it could be fast A break below 1300 is tactically bearish and implies a correction to the 38.2% retracement of 1250. A larger shift in positioning could lead to 1210. This year dips in gold have been bought. Near term macro events in Q4 could continue to result in buyers of gold on the dip.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
