Global Macro

By Leith van Onselen Morgan Stanley has released a detailed new report, entitled The Bitter Aftertaste of Sugar, which examines sugar consumption and its impact on long-term growth in developed and emerging markets, as well as the expected incidence of sugar-related illnesses such as diabetes and obesity and their impact on the workforce.

By Leith van Onselen Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) appear to have hit a snag, with negotiators at last week’s meeting in Hawaii still at loggerheads over certain contentious areas, most notably intellectual property, with developing countries most at odds with the US.

From Tristan Edis, who is a shining light amid the rentier gloom at Dad’s Army: …on Friday…the International Energy Agency revealed that global emissions of carbon dioxide from the energy sector stalled in 2014, while the global economy grew by 3%.

Extraordinary charts here of the “great distortion” as global central banks go money-printing mad from Deutsche via Zero Hedge: …only when you eyeball these charts can you start to comprehend the distortions that have occurred and the uniqueness of the current situation.

Someone at the AFR reads MB: One of the world’s leading hedge fund managers says that economies dependent on China for income, including Australia, are headed for recession and central banks will not be able to able to come to the rescue because they have exhausted the arsenal of policy weapons.

By Leith van Onselen There’s an inter-generational war going on in the UK, which is also being played-out across most developed nations, whereby older generations are ‘making out like bandits’ at the expense of their children and grandchildren.

The recent revelations of orgies and pimping around Dominic Strauss-Kahn of the IMF have surprised few given that august institution’s record of debauched policy.

By Leith van Onselen The Washington Post has joined the chorus of experts warning about the dangers lurking in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement – the US-led trade deal between 12 Pacific-rim nations (including Australia) – which is expected to be signed within the next month: Who will benefit from the TPP?

JP Morgan has a nice discussion today on a topic I’ve been glancing at recently: what exactly is a bubble when yields everywhere are so low?

The new bear, $9 billion hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, returns today with more uber-bearish calls for Australia.

From Goldies via ZH: Greece tensions escalating amid resilient markets Greece and its Euro area counterparties continue to work within a tight schedule to avert a disorderly outcome.

From Goldman Sachs: EMU Peripheral Yields Have Decoupled from Greece in Levels … Greek sovereign bond yields have been going up since last September and, since January, the term structure has become inverted.

By John Browne, cross-posted from Euro-Pacific Capital Once again the crisis in Greece is threatening the unity of the entire euro zone.

By Leith van Onselen McKinsey Global Institute has released a new report examining the evolution of debt across 47 countries—22 advanced and 25 developing—and assessing the implications of higher leverage in the global economy and in specific sectors and countries.

From the FT: A Belgian brothel owner called “Dodo la Saumure”, orgies at luxury hotels and accusations of pimping against a former French presidential hopeful — it sounds like the plot to a sensationalist police drama.

More power to Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis who refuses to be railroaded or pigeonholed by the Troika or its journalist apologists. There’s more reason in this interview than in five years of European crises (and probably since 1999 when the busted euro project was born).

Cross-posted from The Conversation: While in Davos representing Australia at the World Economic Forum, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has enthusiastically extolled the virtues of the Global Infrastructure Hub as a way of funding an infrastructure shortfall, particularly in developed nations.

From the AFR: Asymmetric Return Capital is a dynamic volatility investor that is far from “traditional”.

From the FT: The European Central Bank launched its long-awaited bid to revitalise the eurozone economy and counter deflation with a €60bn-a-month bond-buying programme that was far larger than investors had expected.

From BNP Paribas via FTAlphaville: “In our analysis, six EM sovereigns are at risk of becoming fallen angels this year or next.

From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke and James Shugg: Amidst growing evidence that the risks of an entrenched (and broadening) deflation trend are crystallising, the past eight months have seen ECB policy take a more proactive approach.