Global Macro

by Chris Becker The Japanese economy has now had two decades of near zero growth, a hangover from the ebullient 1990s, where a massive housing and stock market bubble imploded, leaving a huge mountain of private debt that has been transformed into a huge mountain of public debt.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The mass media are filled with images of desperate refugees struggling to escape civil unrest.

by Chris Becker A great historical chart from Callum Thomas that compares the proportion of countries with high inflation and deflation since the early 1970s:   The 1970s were characterisied by very high inflation, even in Australia, which then turned into a generation of moderation as that beast was “tamed” by an explosion of debt.

by Chris Becker Following calls by IMF chief Christine Lagarde over the weekend for the US Federal Reserve to reconsider raising its interest rates, the World Bank is now adding to the chorus.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: A baby boom is generally considered to be a sustained increase and then decrease in the birth rate.

by Chris Becker Earlier this week I spoke about the epic ride of crude oil prices and how investors need to expect volatility in the weeks and months ahead, not discounting the probability of 20-50% rallies and corrections.

By Leith van Onselen Canada and Australia have a lot in common.

China cut interest rates and reserve ratio requirements late yesterday and markets have rebounded handsomely.

From Society Generale: Less confidence in central bank puts As noted above, the most notable feature of recent market price action is that there has been no visible comfort taken on risky assets from the idea that central banks may step in with further liquidity injections to alleviate the situation.

The immediate fate of the global business cycle and asset prices is now caught in an epic monetary policy brawl between the central banks of the US, China and Europe.

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s trade minister, Andrew Robb, has appeared at the National Press Club in Canberra today, where he admitted that concluding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal is looking increasingly unlikely.

The MSM has gone a bit gaga this morning for a new thesis from PIMCO’s Joachim Fels called The Three Gluts.

By Leith van Onselen Eleven years ago I was working at the Australian Treasury as the Department’s trade analyst, where I watched in disbelief as the former trade minister under the Howard Government, Mark Vaile, signed Australia up the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA).

By Leith van Onselen With final negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement taking place in Hawaii this week, and scheduled to conclude on Friday, there are a bunch of thorny issues still yet to be agreed on.

From Albert Edwards of Soc Gen: Investors are right to feel that the recent rout in commodity prices differs from that seen in the second half of last year.

The jig is up for commodities.