Find below Westpac’s newish regular economic document, called “Fearful Symmetry”, a monthly chronicle of the Indian economy. The research effort of the institutional bank is hot so right now!
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Primary Section
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Europe spins again
We are now stampeding towards god knows what in Europe. There is still absolutely no consensus on what, who or how the Greek issue is going to be resolved, and still absolutely no one is talking about the fact that without a full monetary and fiscal union, the issuance of true Euro bonds , or
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Should miners trade in yuan?
A month or so ago, before I was struck down with a monstrous lurgy, Rio announced that it was considering pricing some of it’s iron ore sales in yuan. From The Australian: In another sign of China’s growing power in world markets, the world’s third-largest miner is openly canvassing switching its iron ore settlements from
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France is next
While I was on holiday over the last week I spent some time musing over the current situation in Europe and just how bad I think it can get. I have been wondering for quite a while when France will finally join the PIIGS camp, given that it to is a highly indebted nation with
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Satyajit Das: CDS and Greece
Following is a guest post from Satyajit Das. The European Union’s linguistic gymnastics, redefining default as “restructuring” or “re-profiling” and the structure of any final deal on Greek debt has “real” implications for the arcane workings of the CDS market. In the film Casablanca, Rick (Humphrey Bogart) tells Captain Renault (Claude Rains) that he came to the city
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Crude solution
David Jones may want to blame Julia Gillard, Barack Obama may want to blame Republican austerity nutters and the EU may want to blame rampant ratings agencies, but what we all really need to get things going again is more simple: cheap oil. Last night’s market action delivered slightly cheaper crude, down 2% or so
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Milky wilkies
What can I tell you? The great boob has delivered. The great baby is lapping it up. QE3 is coming! That’s the simple truth screamed by markets following Ben Bernanke’s testimony last night. The Dow went berko, the $US got trashed, gold hit record highs and commodities (oh commodities!) went limit up in everything from
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Feeling QEeeeesy
Last night’s market action should leave us in no doubt. Equities and commodities are caught in a paradox of US Fed front running. The market rout emanating from the structural debt problems of the EU and US was arrested briefly last night with the release of new Federal Reserve minutes, which showed, unsurprisingly, a willingness
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Deepening crisis
Houses and Holes defined the growing Western policy chaos this morning and right on cue the new IMF boss Christine Lagarde has thrown her two cents worth into the mess that is Europe with comments this afternoon that the “IMF hasn’t yet discussed New Greek aid details with EU, nothing should be taken for granted
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Western policy chaos
Look, I’m not a bear by nature. And frankly, I’m a bit tired with the grim macro outlook. But it is what it is and today it’s most definitely taken a turn for the worse. Contagion is now rampant in ten and two year bonds at the core of Europe. Here are the charts: Italy
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Mama mia
I’m a long way from the action sitting here in Newcastle but markets were off a little earlier this morning on news stories that the chances of a Greek default had rocketed up the ratings again. It seems that like any rational human being, European politicians are rethinking their stance on default given the ratings
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Blame the lenders
Exclusively from Michael Pettis’ newsletter: Over the past two years we have become pretty used to the spectacle of Chinese government officials warning the US about its responsibility to maintain the value of the huge amount of US treasury bonds the PBoC has accumulated. More recently we have been hearing complaints in Germany about the
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Is Trichet jawboning for a full union?
In light of the ECB rate rise yesterday the Wall Street Journal has a great article on the current perceived contradictory position held by the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank is trying to rescue the euro and keep a lid on inflation. It will find it can do one of these, but not both.
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Europe slowing – Italy joins watch list
From the AFP Private sector activity in the eurozone was weaker than forecast in June, hitting 20-month low level with recoveries slowing in Germany and France, a key growth indicator showed on Tuesday. The data showed that output fell in Italy and Spain while Ireland continued to record a “very modest” pace of expansion, according
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Richard Koo – Government response to debt deflation
This video of a speech by Richard Koo was noticed by a couple of our readers over on Steve Keen’s blog. It is well worth the 1 hour and 9 minutes of watching for anyone with even a small amount of interest in recent macroeconomic history. It is also a very timely message for the
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S&P – It’s a default
This morning I said we were waiting for ratings, and I said on my later post that it all hinges on the rating agencies. Tonight they have spoken and it would seem that the Greek crisis is far from over. Two rollover proposals being touted for Greek debt would amount to a selective default, ratings
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Pencil in September
As I have been talking about this for months now, nothing is actually being fixed in Europe. Until the less productive countries actually default or Europe creates itself a real fiscal/monetary union then the “debt show” will roll on. The Wall street Journal reports today that the next act for Greece begins in September. Euro-zone
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Saul Eslake on commodity prices
Saul Eslake, Director of Productivity Growth Program at the Grattan Institute, yesterday presented a paper at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, on some of the longer term demand and supply factors shaping the behaviour of commodity prices, over the past decade and over the next 5-15 years. The full paper is below and
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Has Greece asked Argentina?
As my readers would know I have been discussing Europe’s financial issues for quite some time. I have stated many times that Greece’s issues are far bigger than just internal fiscal policy, and that I consider Greece’s default an inevitability due to its macro-economic position within the European marketplace. Overnight PIMCO added their voice to
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Sell the rallies
So, the Dow and euro are up as the latest debt crisis passes, again. I wish it were so. We have had a stonking sell-off and I suspect it’s time for a technical bounce, with some evidence beginning to flow through that lower commodities are boosting US purchasing power, and Bernanke likely to offer QE2.5
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Greece: End of days ?
Another day, another episode in the soap opera that is European economics. It seems more detached from reality the longer it goes on. From Reuters: Euro zone finance ministers postponed a final decision on extending 12 billion euros ($17 billion) in emergency loans to Greece, saying Athens would first have to introduce harsh austerity measures.
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To QE or not to QE, that is the question…
Brad DeLong debates Jim Grant on the great investment question of our time…(h/t Jesse)
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Four dark clouds
The Dow went up a bit last night. Hooray! But if you think this correction is over, think again. This is the correction we have to have. Think about it. There are four big economies in the world: Japan, EU, China and the US. A dark cloud hangs over each. Japan is far worse than
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The debt that killed the UK economy
Back in April, Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich from the Centre for Independent Studies wrote an article in Fairfax on the worrying parallels between the UK and Australian economies and housing markets. The current mood in Australia triggers eerie memories for me. I feel as if I have experienced this scenario before – not in Australia
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Goosing the stockmarket
Regular readers will know that I am confident that QE3 is on the way sometime after markets get their swoon on. There are a number of reasons why I’ve formed that judgement. First, it’s because, in my view, the US economy is driven by markets, not the other way around. As Alan Greenspan argued in
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Global energy amusement
On the day that OPEC trashed Ben Bernanke’s greatest hope of a bounce in the US economy, we offer the following global energy roundup from BP, chock full of interesting detail on production and consumption of oil, gas and coal. Makes for hours of scary reading! (h/t Zero Hedge)
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No milky wilkies
Below find the full text of Chairman Bernanke’s speech this morning. No comfort here for markets. The upshot? No milky wilkies until you waaaaiiil… Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the International Monetary Conference, Atlanta, Georgia June 7, 2011 The U.S. Economic Outlook I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate once
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Ups and Dow
As the US market starts to look rocky it is worth remembering that the rise over the last couple of years has been strong. The report by Prudential to which I referred on the weekend had some interesting insights into share valuations in America. It is not being driven by sentiment, it is being driven
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Boozing with central banks
In mid to late 2007, I had a couple of beers with a very impressive individual who had just returned from a rather important US Federal Reserve conference. Apparently, the conference had been abuzz with discussion and dark rumour of an ensuing economic accident. My drinking partner told me that there was a distinct possibility
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Avant garde economics
My esteemed co-blogger Deep T made the comment that too little attention is being paid on MacroBusiness to creative solutions to the problems that are documented in great detail on MacroBusiness. I would go a step further. Economic analysis generally suffers from a deep flaw. Because it is a quasi-science (although in no respect truly