Global Macro


Macrobusiness Chartfest 12 May, 2018

AUSTRALIA Australian Federal Government Balances since Federation – note the 50s & 60s, our government is looking to debt load and dissipate with population ponzi again. Australian government debt to GDP – we have driven it higher to bloat property prices and trash our education sector, while exporting the non-mining or agriculture external facing sectors


Switzerland prepares to vote on sovereign money

Big news this: On 10th June 2018 Switzerland will be the first country in the world to have a national referendum on the introduction of Sovereign Money. A referendum result that is as positive as possible in Switzerland will help monetary reformers worldwide to make significant progress. However, our opponents are powerful and will try to


Echoes of the Mining GFC

DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked. I reckon there’s another 5% in this move for both as the mad EUR long unwinds: AUD held on against DMs: EMs are breaking: Gold is at the brink: Oil looks toppy: Base metals are fighting a losing battle: Big miners too: EM stocks are breaking: EM


Australian dollar clubbed as Euro breaks

DXY is on on fire: As EUR plunges: AUD is getting clubbed: Gold held on manfully: Oil too, held aloft by Iran: Oil is holding together the entire commodities complex: And Big Miners: Even EM stocks: But EM junk debt is telling the tale. Sell! As US yields rise, though the curve flattened: Bunds were


US inflation bogey upsets markets

DXY climbed last night: AUD was clubbed: Gold fell: Oil too: Base metals flamed out: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks fell: Junk too: Treasuries were killed but the curve steepened for once: Bunds the same: Stocks pulled back: US data was decent with a good Pilly Fed and solid Fed Beige Book. The US


Dirt roars as China stimulates

DXY was firm last night: AUD was firm too: But not as strong as EM: Gold tried and failed to go higher: Oil succeeded: Base metals were strong: Big miners went nuts: EM stocks were firm: Junk didn’t buy it: US yields rose: Not bunds: Stocks firmed: So, as China cut its reserve ratio requirement


Stocks go boom as Trump zips it

All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor


“Extremely difficult” for US to re-join TPP

By Leith van Onselen Following intense lobbying from US farmers and the Republican Party, it was revealed on Friday that US President Donald Trump has ordered his senior economic and trade advisers to examine the possibility of the US re-entering the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership, dubbed by MB as “TPP 2.0”. However, international trade


MB Radio: Australia’s hidden normal comes out

  Ahead of the May budget Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen and David Llewellyn-Smith about the economic outlook and the unfolding Australian economic narrative.  In a wide ranging discussion Leith and David cover Australia’s reliance on commodity exports and the implication a subsiding global commodity market has for this dependence, as well as the potential


Boom goes the Xi put!

Sell DXY: Buy AUD: And how! Buy gold: Buy oil, helped along by Syrian tensions: Buy dirt: Buy dirt again: Buy EM stocks: Buy US junk but not EM: Sell Treasuries: And bunds: Buy stocks! Thanks Xi Jinping and your put under free trade! Except for one small problem, via the FT: US President Donald


Japan shows how an economy can age gracefully

By Leith van Onselen After spending a decade worrying about the rise of Japan, economists (and population boosters) in Australia have frequently labelled Japan an ‘economic basket case’ due to its ageing (and falling)population and its slow growth in headline GDP. I have frequently challenged this argument, citing Japan’s enviously low unemployment rate, which is


“Sell the rips”

DXY was sold last night: AUD was roughly stable against DM: But strong against EM: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners weak: EM stocks too: Junk was better: The Treasury curve flattened: And bunds: Stocks soared then flamed out: Everyone is a bear or bear in waiting now. Last night’s bid


Who wins a US/China trade war?

It’s over. China has won. So says the Global Times: China on Wednesday unveiled a list of imported products from the United States worth $50 billion that will be subjected to higher tariffs, including soybeans, automobiles, aircrafts and chemical products. The decision, made by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, could also involve


Stocks surge on global synchronised slowdown

The USD is pushing towards breakout: AUD fell: But not as fast as EMs: Gold was hit: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Big miners surged in London but only firmed in NY: EM stocks rose: US junk lifted but EM fell: Treasuries were flogged: Bunds too: European stocks soared and US rose again: As the


AEP: Trade war prelude to real war

Nobody out-bears AEP. Nobody: Donald Trump’s declaration of tariff warfare against China has little to do with trade. It is about raw power, a struggle over which of the two sparring hegemons will dominate technology and run the world in the 21st century. The pretence of cordial coexistence has all but ended in the Hobbesian


Trade agreements “serve rent-seeking politically well-connected firms”

By Leith van Onselen MB has long derided Australia’s ‘free trade agreements’ (FTAs) for their complexity and deleterious efficiency impacts, their anti-competitive measures around intellectual property, as well as some FTAs containing clauses enabling trading partners to sue sovereign governments (called Investor-State Dispute Settlement or ISDS). On Friday, the University of Chicago’s Pro-Market Blog published


Markets are Donald Trump

DXY rose last night: AUD did too: Gold fell: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Not big miners: Or EM stocks: Junk did better: Treasury yields rose: And bunds: Stocks rebounded: The key was this, via Bloomie: Judging from his tweets, President Donald Trump appears to have the knives out for Inc. But inside the


Stocks bull trap snapping shut?

DXY was stable last night: AUD was weak: But EMs weaker still: Gold was strong: Oil weak: Base metals stable: Big miners fell (chart is wrong): EM stocks did OK: Junk is at support: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: The Nasdaq was caned: And the S&P500 closed below both its 200DMA and February low though


Bain warns of automation apocalypse

By Leith van Onselen Last week, job search website Adzuna estimated that around one-third Australian jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, with lower-skilled and manual labour jobs most at risk. Yesterday, Zero Hedge reported on a fascinating keynote address by the Managing Director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, Karen Harris, entitled: “Labor