Global Macro


US dollar bottom firms up

DXY took off last night after surviving its capitulation: EUR was hosed: Gold fell: AUD fell: But EMs fell more: Brent was socked: Base metals flamed out: EM stocks held on: And high yield: US yields lifted, the curve fell: EU yields lifted as well: Stocks rebounded: It’s still too early to call a USD


Did the US dollar just capitulate?

DXY was pulverised last night before putting in the big rally: The EUR was the complete reverse: AUD followed the two: Was mixed against EMs: Gold roared then slumped: Brent is weak given the soft USD: Not so base metals! Big miners are about to either break out or stick a big double top: EM


North Korea fires missile over Japan

A slow news day just got heated up: North Korea has launched a missile which passed over northern Japan, the Japanese Government says. The Japanese Government warned people in the north of the country to take precautions and shelter in their basements, according to public broadcaster NHK. “We will make utmost efforts to firmly protect


US dollar plunges

DXY continued its swan dive last night: There’s so real support on that chart until around the 87 cents area… The EUR roared: Aussie jumped against USD, fell against EUR: It was not as strong as EMs: Gold confirmed the DXY break: Brent slumped as US petroleum is hammered by Hurricane Harvey: Base metals fell


Quantum computing at an inflection point

Via Morgan Stanley: Quantum computing is at an inflection point – moving from fundamental theoretical research to an engineering development phase, including commercial experiments. That said, in the medium term, we see a transition period during which classical computers will simulate quantum algorithms, while genuine quantum computers are customised to fit those algorithms. While the


Trump speaks, markets tank

DXY was down last night: AUD up against DMs: Down against EMs: Gold firmed and is still at the verge of break out: Brent rose too as US inventories sink: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks soared to new highs: High yield is still dragging the chain: US yields fell: German too, Italy is suddenly


Are we past the Trump nadir?

DXY rebounded last night: AUD fell against it but rise against EUR: It fell against EMs: Gold held at the highs: Brent held at the lows: Base metals are still rising for no apparent reason: EM stocks took off: High yield too: US yields rose: And European, especially Italy: Stocks soared: Welcome to the Trump


Trump fires a fall guy, now what?

DXY fell Friday night: AUD was up against DMs: But down against EMs: Gold was up a bit: Brent roared as the US rig count fell: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks firmed: High yield was mixed: Big miners stable: US yield edged up: Not European: Stocks edged down: The White House conflict is over


Unemployment and the bullshit work-ethic

By Gavin R Putland Some else wants to do your job. So why does it matter if you do it? In a logical world, if you don’t do your day job, your idleness imposes a loss on the rest of us. In the real world – where the official involuntary unemployment rate is rarely less


When will the Fed end the business cycle?

Via Citi’s chief global strategist, Matt King: Markets seem optimistic that central bank plans to modestly reduce their support for markets in coming months can be achieved without disruption. We are not convinced. When other people’s children behave badly, the temptation is to presume it’s something to do with the parents. But then one day,


Is Skynet really coming for our jobs?

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: It’s almost scary to think that the world as we know it may well be run by Artificial Intelligence (AI) one day. While the risk of an imminent AI disruption of the labour market may sound like a fantasy, those with the most advanced AI technologies at hand think that AI


Commodities blast off as oil saves a day

DXY rebounded last night: AUD rose against DMs: Gold fell: Brent roared back on OPEC jawboning: Base metals rocketed. Copper broke out: Big miners flew: EM stocks tried but failed: As high yield rightly yawned: US yields jumped and the curve steepened: Same in Europe: And stocks hit record highs again in the US: OPEC jawboned.


Well done, RBA, you now have the hottest currency on the planet

It’s congratulations all around as Australia’s failing post-mining boom adjustment takes another blow today from the hottest currency on the planet. Against DMs it is on fire: Against EMs it is on fire: Gold has nothing on the Aussie: Though oil pretended everything is OK for now: Base metals fell: Big miners eased: EM stocks


Global car sales drive into ditch

Via Macquarie: Solid June and 1H for global car sales but market slowing  Global car sales are important driver of commodity demand, especially PGMs. They continued to see YoY growth in June, and recorded a solid 1H, if not as strong as in 2016. We expect a further slowdown in 2H 2017 and 2018,


Markets soar with the Yellen dove

The AUD powers on against DMs:   Though lost ground against EMs: Gold caught a bid: Brent did not: Base metals rose: Big miners jumped: EM stocks soared: As high yield was bid again: And US bonds: European spreads collapsed: And stocks moonshot: Enter the Yellen dove: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chairman