Global Macro


Steve Keen: Soaring global debt risks another GFC

Cross-posted from The Conversation: This phrase may have religious roots, but there is no better way to describe the dominant sect in economics today than as wilfully blind. A decade after the 2007-08 crisis, most still repeat the mantra that it could not have been predicted. Nonsense. The data that showed what would cause the


Will the Great Taper bring on GFC 2.0?

Via Citi: After many years of sizable increases in central bank balance sheets (Figure 2), major changes in central bank purchases are approaching, as i) the Fed is due to announce balance sheet reduction in September and begin implementing it in October, ii) the ECB will probably announce a reduction in its net purchase volume


DPRK fires new missile over Japan

Via the BBC: North Korea has fired a missile eastwards from its capital, Pyongyang, towards Japan, media reports say. Japan said that the missile likely passed over its territory and has warned residents to take shelter, local media report. South Korea and the US are analysing the details of the launch, the South’s military said.


US lowflation lifts Australian dollar

DXY got kicked last night: The Aussie was flat against DMs: And mixed against EMs: Gold lifted a little: Brent jumped then fell. More shale ahead at these levels: Base metals look very toppy here as the Chinese slowdown appears: Big miners too: EM stocks held on: High yield still flat: US yields jumped though


Banking sector to be culled by automation

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan has predicted a bonfire of industry jobs as automation takes hold across the finance sector. Every signal is that he will be proved right very soon. Those roles in finance where the knowledge required is systematic will soon disappear. And it will happen irrespective of how


S&P500 roars to record highs

DXY caught a big counter-bid last night: The Aussie dollar fell sharply: And was mixed against EMs: Gold was shellacked: Brent was hit: Base metals rebounded: Big miners too: EM stocks soared: High yield was bid: US yields jumped: Europe too: And stocks roared to record highs: Hard to tell if this is the turn


Canada hikes rates, housing crashes

Via Bloomie: The Bank of Canada forged ahead with another interest rate hike in a nod to the country’s surging economy, while signaling its appetite for further tightening may be curbed by a rising currency and sluggish price pressures. Policy makers raised their benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1 percent, the second increase since July. At


Fed versus ECB battle intensifies

Friday night saw DXY soft and EUR strong: AUD tracked the two: Gold was firm and has jumped this morning: Brent was firm amid hurricane fog: Base metals are still crazy: Big miners have broken out across the board (except on the ASX, killed by AUD): EM stocks too: Not high yield which is a


Australian dollar pump and dump

DXY fell last night as EUR roared again: AUD did the usual two-step: Was mixed against EMs: Gold surged: Oil surged as another hurricane heads for the US: Base metals too: Big miners are ripping towards break out: EM stocks too: US yields lifted but the curve sank: European spreads shrank: Stocks surged: It was


US dollar bottom firms up

DXY took off last night after surviving its capitulation: EUR was hosed: Gold fell: AUD fell: But EMs fell more: Brent was socked: Base metals flamed out: EM stocks held on: And high yield: US yields lifted, the curve fell: EU yields lifted as well: Stocks rebounded: It’s still too early to call a USD


Did the US dollar just capitulate?

DXY was pulverised last night before putting in the big rally: The EUR was the complete reverse: AUD followed the two: Was mixed against EMs: Gold roared then slumped: Brent is weak given the soft USD: Not so base metals! Big miners are about to either break out or stick a big double top: EM


North Korea fires missile over Japan

A slow news day just got heated up: North Korea has launched a missile which passed over northern Japan, the Japanese Government says. The Japanese Government warned people in the north of the country to take precautions and shelter in their basements, according to public broadcaster NHK. “We will make utmost efforts to firmly protect


US dollar plunges

DXY continued its swan dive last night: There’s so real support on that chart until around the 87 cents area… The EUR roared: Aussie jumped against USD, fell against EUR: It was not as strong as EMs: Gold confirmed the DXY break: Brent slumped as US petroleum is hammered by Hurricane Harvey: Base metals fell


Quantum computing at an inflection point

Via Morgan Stanley: Quantum computing is at an inflection point – moving from fundamental theoretical research to an engineering development phase, including commercial experiments. That said, in the medium term, we see a transition period during which classical computers will simulate quantum algorithms, while genuine quantum computers are customised to fit those algorithms. While the


Trump speaks, markets tank

DXY was down last night: AUD up against DMs: Down against EMs: Gold firmed and is still at the verge of break out: Brent rose too as US inventories sink: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks soared to new highs: High yield is still dragging the chain: US yields fell: German too, Italy is suddenly


Are we past the Trump nadir?

DXY rebounded last night: AUD fell against it but rise against EUR: It fell against EMs: Gold held at the highs: Brent held at the lows: Base metals are still rising for no apparent reason: EM stocks took off: High yield too: US yields rose: And European, especially Italy: Stocks soared: Welcome to the Trump


Trump fires a fall guy, now what?

DXY fell Friday night: AUD was up against DMs: But down against EMs: Gold was up a bit: Brent roared as the US rig count fell: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks firmed: High yield was mixed: Big miners stable: US yield edged up: Not European: Stocks edged down: The White House conflict is over


Unemployment and the bullshit work-ethic

By Gavin R Putland Some else wants to do your job. So why does it matter if you do it? In a logical world, if you don’t do your day job, your idleness imposes a loss on the rest of us. In the real world – where the official involuntary unemployment rate is rarely less