Global Macro

6

China industrial profits destroyed

Via China’s NBS: 1 – 3 months, the national scale industrial enterprises realized a total profit of 7814.5 billion yuan, fell 36.7% (on a comparable basis, see Note II), a decline of more than 1 – 2 narrowed in February 1.6 percent. 1 – 3 months, above-scale industrial enterprises, state-owned holding enterprises realized a total profit of 2226.7 billion yuan, fell 45.5% ; joint-stock enterprises realized a total

31

Ray Dalio on credit and history

Ray Dalio with another of titanic missives: Money, Credit, and Debt. Note: To make this an easier and shorter article to read, I tried to convey the most important points in simple language and bolded them, so you can get the gist of the whole thing in just a few minutes by focusing on what’s in bold.

5

South Korean exports tank

One of those bellwether indicators for global demand: I have been wondering how the North Asian electronics supply chain has been holding up. A few visits to my local Officeworks has shown shelves cleared of items for a home office build-out. This may have provided some support for the global tech supply chain of which

20

Credit Suisse: Financial crisis over

Via Zoltan Pozsar at Credit Suisse: The Fed’s liquidity injections are working. Global dollar funding conditions have eased, and U.S. dollar Libor-OIS spreads started to tighten. We don’t think that lower prices on the CPFF or the MMLF are necessary for Libor-OIS to tighten more – other factors can tighten it further. First, positive Libor-Libor

10

Too bullish IMF measures depressionary shock

Via the IMF: The world has changed dramatically in the three months since our last update of the World Economic Outlook in January. A rare disaster, a coronavirus pandemic, has resulted in a tragically large number of human lives being lost. As countries implement necessary quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the world has been

49

Is the WHO China’s puppet?

The United States has threatened to pull its funding from the World Health Organization (WHO), claiming that it has been badly corrupted by China. This view has been backed up by Stanford University’s Lanhee J. Chen: The World Health Organization isn’t just “China centric,” as President Trump called it on Tuesday. It is also broken

20

MIT: Stronger pandemic lockdowns better for economy

Arguments around whether to implement harsh lock-down measures to curb the coronavirus’ spread typically centre around the trade-off between protecting human life and the economy. New research from MIT suggests that there is no “trade-off” and that stronger lock-down responses typically generate stronger economies: The study, “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not:

4

China warns that v-shaped recovery is not coming

Via Bloomie: Relax, eat out and shop. That’s the latest message from the Chinese government to its people, after months of warning them to stay indoors because of the coronavirus. In a bid to jump start consumption that all but disappeared during the outbreak, authorities in some places are distributing vouchers, asking companies to give

14

Battlefield triage arrives in UK

We’ve already seen it in Italy, now the UK, via The Tele: Intensive care for coronavirus patients is now being limited to those “reasonably certain” to survive, a major NHS London trust has conceded. A department head at Imperial College Healthcare revealed on Sunday that fewer and fewer marginal patients are being selected for ventilator treatment because so

7

No virus v-shaped recovery

It is structural change not cyclical. Via Joseph Carson, Former Chief Economist Alliance Bernstein: Economic recession is an infrequent occurrence, but in a fundamental sense recessions are the economy’s way of cleansing the “rot” out the system that have been built up over time. This emanates from bad investments, bad loans, bad policies, excessive risk