EUR rallied last night and DXY fell: AUD ran around on the spot: But EMs fell: Gold bounced on renewed Korean tensions: Oil fell: And base metals: Plus big miners: EM stocks are still in trouble: Junk too: Treasuries were gobbled up: And bunds (Italian yields were flat): Stocks were soft: Why anyone would want
I’m sometimes skeptical of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. His bearishness is so relentless and florid that it’s hard to keep up. But every so often he scribbles such a ripping piece that it is impossible to ignore. To wit, from The Telegraph comes Italexit: The EU’s gendarmes are now eyeing Italy’s rebel coalition with professional curiosity. This
The DXY/EUR two-step reversed last night: But AUD fell anyway: Even as EM’s poured it on: Gold is still holding: Oil fell a little: Base metals mostly lifted: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks got a little bid: With junk: Treasuries were sold: Bunds too as Italian yields fell: Stocks were mixed: US data was
By Leith van Onselen The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new “cutting-edge dataset” measuring private and public debt across the global economy since the 1950s. Below are the key findings from this report: The first observation is that, almost a decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global debt, at $164 trillion—or about
Via the FT: The US has stepped back from the brink of a trade war with China after Washington halted plans to impose tariffs on up to $150bn of imports, according to the US Treasury secretary. “We’re putting the trade war on hold,” Steven Mnuchin said in a television interview on Sunday. The declaration from
DXY roared again Friday night as EUR fell decisively below 1.18: EUR positioning remains hilariously long setting us up for a higher DXY yet: AUD hung on against DMs: As the market moved to moderately short last week. CFTC net positions are -23.1k contracts versus -16.8k last week: A stable AUD launched against crashing EMs:
By Leith van Onselen Back in the early-1930s, renowned economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted that technical innovations and rising productivity would mean that advanced country workers would be able to work only 15 hours a week and still enjoy rising living standards. Back in 2013, David Graeber achieved international notoriety when he penned a highly amusing,
AUSTRALIA Australian Federal Government Balances since Federation – note the 50s & 60s, our government is looking to debt load and dissipate with population ponzi again. Australian government debt to GDP – we have driven it higher to bloat property prices and trash our education sector, while exporting the non-mining or agriculture external facing sectors
DXY was up again last night but well off the highs. It’s mirror image EUR was the reverse: AUD finally caught a little bid against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold held on again: Oil is unhinged: Base metals were stable: Big miners surged despite the falling dirt/rising oil paradigm crushing their margins: EM
Big news this: On 10th June 2018 Switzerland will be the first country in the world to have a national referendum on the introduction of Sovereign Money. A referendum result that is as positive as possible in Switzerland will help monetary reformers worldwide to make significant progress. However, our opponents are powerful and will try to
DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked. I reckon there’s another 5% in this move for both as the mad EUR long unwinds: AUD held on against DMs: EMs are breaking: Gold is at the brink: Oil looks toppy: Base metals are fighting a losing battle: Big miners too: EM stocks are breaking: EM
Last night DXY launched: As EUR cratered: As we bid adieu to an all too brief European boomlet: AUD was monkey-hammered to a two year low as 75 cents broke: It was mixed against EMs: Gold was hit but is hanging on! Oil gave in: Base metals can’t take the runaway USD: Neither can big
DXY took off last night: AUD sank to fresh lows across the board: Though EMs were even weaker: Gold held on: Oil was firm: Base metals are struggling: Big miners too: EM stocks fell: Junk too: The Treasury curve pancaked: Bunds too: US stocks fell, Europe lifted as EUR tumbles: Lot’s of news, most of
DXY is on on fire: As EUR plunges: AUD is getting clubbed: Gold held on manfully: Oil too, held aloft by Iran: Oil is holding together the entire commodities complex: And Big Miners: Even EM stocks: But EM junk debt is telling the tale. Sell! As US yields rise, though the curve flattened: Bunds were
DXY climbed last night: AUD was clubbed: Gold fell: Oil too: Base metals flamed out: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks fell: Junk too: Treasuries were killed but the curve steepened for once: Bunds the same: Stocks pulled back: US data was decent with a good Pilly Fed and solid Fed Beige Book. The US
DXY was firm last night: AUD was firm too: But not as strong as EM: Gold tried and failed to go higher: Oil succeeded: Base metals were strong: Big miners went nuts: EM stocks were firm: Junk didn’t buy it: US yields rose: Not bunds: Stocks firmed: So, as China cut its reserve ratio requirement
All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor
DXY was down last night: AUD was stablish: Gold firmed: Oil fell: And remains vulnerable with a huge speculative long: Base metals lifted: Big miners fell: EM stocks struggled: The EM junk tide is definitely going out. A slowing China signal? Short end Treasury yields marched higher, the curve flattened again: Not so bunds: Stocks
By Leith van Onselen Following intense lobbying from US farmers and the Republican Party, it was revealed on Friday that US President Donald Trump has ordered his senior economic and trade advisers to examine the possibility of the US re-entering the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership, dubbed by MB as “TPP 2.0”. However, international trade
Ahead of the May budget Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen and David Llewellyn-Smith about the economic outlook and the unfolding Australian economic narrative. In a wide ranging discussion Leith and David cover Australia’s reliance on commodity exports and the implication a subsiding global commodity market has for this dependence, as well as the potential
DXY rose last night: AUD was mixed against EM: And EM: Gold got flogged: And base metals: Big miners fell: EM stocks firmed a touch: But junk is sending an interesting signal as US warms up but EM turns cold: The Treasury curve flattened again: Bunds went the other way: Stocks rose firmly: The key
Sell DXY: Buy AUD: And how! Buy gold: Buy oil, helped along by Syrian tensions: Buy dirt: Buy dirt again: Buy EM stocks: Buy US junk but not EM: Sell Treasuries: And bunds: Buy stocks! Thanks Xi Jinping and your put under free trade! Except for one small problem, via the FT: US President Donald
By Leith van Onselen After spending a decade worrying about the rise of Japan, economists (and population boosters) in Australia have frequently labelled Japan an ‘economic basket case’ due to its ageing (and falling)population and its slow growth in headline GDP. I have frequently challenged this argument, citing Japan’s enviously low unemployment rate, which is
DXY was sold last night: AUD was roughly stable against DM: But strong against EM: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners weak: EM stocks too: Junk was better: The Treasury curve flattened: And bunds: Stocks soared then flamed out: Everyone is a bear or bear in waiting now. Last night’s bid
By Leith van Onselen The UK’s House of Commons library has produced projections claiming that the world’s richest 1% are on course to control as much as two-thirds of the world’s wealth by 2030. From The Guardian: Since 2008, the wealth of the richest 1% has been growing at an average of 6% a year
It’s over. China has won. So says the Global Times: China on Wednesday unveiled a list of imported products from the United States worth $50 billion that will be subjected to higher tariffs, including soybeans, automobiles, aircrafts and chemical products. The decision, made by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, could also involve
The USD is pushing towards breakout: AUD fell: But not as fast as EMs: Gold was hit: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Big miners surged in London but only firmed in NY: EM stocks rose: US junk lifted but EM fell: Treasuries were flogged: Bunds too: European stocks soared and US rose again: As the
Nobody out-bears AEP. Nobody: Donald Trump’s declaration of tariff warfare against China has little to do with trade. It is about raw power, a struggle over which of the two sparring hegemons will dominate technology and run the world in the 21st century. The pretence of cordial coexistence has all but ended in the Hobbesian
Damien Boey at Credit Suisse has taken his bear pill today: Investor concerns about trade tensions are soothed by Kudlow Overnight, investors were initially very concerned about trade retaliation measures announced by Chinese officials. However, sentiment turned sharply higher after US President Trump’s new chief economic advisor Kudlow told investors to relax. US equities reversed
Via BT’s excellent Vimal Gor today: There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a
