Global Macro

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Europe couldn’t vaccinate its way out of a wet paper bag

Via GaveKal: It is looking likely that most countries will miss their Covid-19 vaccination targets for 2021. This creates a risk of slower than expected economic growth, especially in Europe where renewed lockdowns have forced the region into a double-dip recession, from which it may start to emerge only around midyear. Moreover, any activity dependent

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Global lockdowns intensify economic damage

Via Goldman: Our global GS Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) – a combination of official restrictions and actual mobility data from 46 economies, weighted by PPP GDP – tightened in the third week of January. Using our estimated relationship between the GS ELI and real activity, we see an ELI-implied hit of nearly 10% ELI-implied hit

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How worrying is the new British COVID strain?

Reuters has posted a good explainer on the new COVID strain sweeping through Britain, which has prompted some neighbouring European nations to shut trade links to prevent transmission. The Cliff Notes summary is that this strain is far more infectious than other strains, but not more lethal. Vaccines are also thought to protect against this

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If Biden wins Georgia, what will assets do?

Via Goldman: Focus is likely to intensify further on Georgia’s two Senate runoff elections, which will determine control of the Senate. We look here at the implications for key assets of a shift from the current Republican Senate majority to Democratic control of the Senate, using the same cross-asset approach that we have used to

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How long will it take for vaccines to kill the virus?

Via Goldman: This note expands our monthly forecasting vaccination model by including the major emerging markets and the ten leading global vaccine candidates. Global vaccine supply is likely to become plentiful. Achieving the top-10developer production targets would deliver enough doses to vaccinate 85% of the world’s population in 2021. Although DMs currently hold the largest

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Goldman on the boom of 2021/22

Via Goldman: Our global growth numbers remain well above consensus because we think too many forecasters are extrapolating too much from past cycles. Most recent recessions have resulted from asset price busts and other financial shocks, whose negative effects on output took time to develop and even more time to unwind. By contrast, the 2020

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Global boom imminent?

A couple of pieces that investors should pay attention to. First, the pick of Aitkens, James: “There was an enormous mistake coming out of 2009 in the form of the self inflicted European sovereign debt crisis and the lunacy of the tea party. Fiscal policy was cut off way too soon.” …Central banks have signalled

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World United States Hospitalisations Increasing Cases     Decreasing Cases More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data sources This is a list of some

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Deaths and Hospitalisations Note: Hospitalisations data for Europe is only updated weekly. These numbers are up until Sunday Nov 7th. In Europe there is a significant increase in the number of deaths being reported. This week Czechia and Belgium

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Hospitalisations Note: Hospitalisations data for Europe is only updated weekly. These numbers are up until Sunday Nov 1st.       More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard

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US sensibly lifts skilled visa salary threshold

Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research proving that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H1B) has been ruthlessly exploited by employers to undercut American wages. The analysis was based on the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Italy and Iran Canada More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data sources This is a list of some of the main data sources

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World USA More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data sources This is a list of some of the main data sources we use: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Probably

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Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World   Europe’s Second Wave New Cases in Europe are increasing rapidly with Spain and France being the worst affected and the UK also reporting high numbers. Many countries are introducing lockdown measures again. Despite the increasing cases the number

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Deloitte: More virus equals less GDP

Via Deloitte: The release of national accounts data this morning confirms the Australian economy has just experienced its sharpest ever three-month contraction – driving it to its weakest growth since the end of World War 2. Australian GDP growth over the same quarter of the previous year Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.  Note quarterly numbers