Australian Shares

by Chris Becker Well that was a fun ride for Aussie dollar traders as deflation dipped into the Lucky Country just before the FOMC Meeting, which was more hawkish and reassuring than expected.

by Chris Weston, IG The interesting dynamic is how the US tech sector is a growing point of concern right now, while oil is an inspiration and various key central bank meetings are holding back trading activity.

As I expected and traded against, the CPI print this morning came in well below expectations, with the Aussie dollar creamed as this opens the door for the RBA to ease later in the year – or even earlier!

From Deutsche: Expecting sound UL earnings growth offset by bad debt deterioration Overall we expect a mixed 1H16 reporting season, with hoh cash NPAT growth of ~1% -4%. Underlying earnings growth is likely to be solid (3-8%), however we forecast BDD/GLA ratios to rise ~4bps on avg (due to single name exposures and resources).

by Chris Becker A boring Asian session translated into a mixed European session until we got to the US durable goods order print and a slew of earnings in the ‘States, culminating in a big downward surprise for tech giants Apple and Twitter, as reported here.

The bear market rally is struggling today as big iron retraces with BHP under $20 again -2.6%, RIO -3.3%, and FMG -6%.

by Chris Becker Following last week’s ECB meeting, risk markets are now setting up for this weeks BOJ and Fed meetings showing how much they hinge on the central banks actions and not fundamentals.

Lol, in what is now a metronomic event, Dalian has again surged limit up pushing stocks back to flat from a solid fall earlier.

by Chris Becker Its all about the ECB meeting and Mario Draghis press conference thereafter for risk markets overnight, where the central bank made clear its intentions of keeping the foot on the throttle in terms of stimulus as it stated that more QE “will work this time”.

We live in a world of acronyms, and traders are generally aware of commonly used terms such as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google). However, we can now throw in TINA (There Is No Alternative h/t HSBC research) and TIME (Tech, Industrials, Materials and Energy).

Big iron continues to rampage with Dalian limit up again and shares following suit.

by Chris Becker Markets are loving the returned dynamic of oil prices pushing risk markets higher as no bad news is good news for crude, where traders are reading into machinations that the major producers will cut or at least freeze output soon.

The good times are here.

One man who will be breathing an enormous sigh of relief today is Trevor Sykes with BHP blasting through $20 and effectively ending the infamous Sykesnado in which he instructed all to buy the stock as it plunged into a value destroying vortex.

by Chris Becker Emerging market currencies and the continued rally in crude embiggened by a weaker USD is pushing risk higher and higher as the DAX pops, alongside US stocks, which will filter to the ASX200 this morning.

So much for rebalancing!

by Chris Becker Crude oil is the major catalyst driving markets, and after Mondays gap down due to the stalled Doha meeting, its resurgence is pushing risk markets up as well.

Big gas is taking it in the team today following the Doha dud with WPL -1.4%, OSH -4%, STO -6%, ORG -5% and LNG -1%:   I imagine the market will now follow every tick is every OPEC oil minster’s face henceforth so volatility is going to be the name of the game.

Chart of the day – One of my favourite charts around. Here we see the Bloomberg US financial index (white line) relative to the Federal Reserve’s own five-year inflation expectation gauge (yellow line).