Australian Shares

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Trading Day: a waiting game

The S&P/ASX 200 slumped this morning on overnight falls from other equity markets, and has stabilised at 4485 points, falling 1.2%. Other Asian markets are experiencing similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.05% at 9941 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.8% at 22354 points. Other risk assets are steady, with the AUD consolidating

1

Trading Day: CPI weighs

The S&P/ASX 200 opened slightly lower this morning and began to claw back losses before the 11.30 CPI announcement. The market has stabilised and is down 15 points or 0.3% at 4557. Other Asian markets are experiencing small falls, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.5% at 10041 points, and the Hang Seng steady at 22568

0

Trading Day: all the way with USA

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher this morning and has built on those gains, now just over 1% or 47 points higher at 4577. Other Asian markets are experiencing modest gains, with the Nikkei 225 steady at 10054 points, and the Hang Seng up 0.8% at 22482 points. Other risk assets are up, with the AUD

8

Brokers turn bullish on banks

The banks are nearing levels where they might be a buy accrding to a report by Credit Suisse. It raises an interesting question. CS is not particularly bullish on bank earnings, but believes the sell off has been overdone. That means that it is not rating the risk potential (of a severe housing correction) which, while it

1

Trading Day: US unravels

With the US theatrics over debt ceilings continue into the opening of the Asian markets this morning, the S&P/ASX 200 slumped almost 1% and is now 42 points or 0.93% lower at 4560 points. Other Asian markets are experiencing similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 10068 points, and the Hang Seng also

3

Trading Day: 22nd July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped higher this morning and is now 38 points or 0.84% higher at 4594 points. Other Asian markets are up higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.9% to 10095 points, and the Hang Seng up strongly 1.35% at 22255 points. Other risk assets are mixed, with the AUD up strongly at 1.0825

4

Trading Day: risk back on?

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher this morning and built on those gains up over 0.5% before falling sharply just after midday – possibly due to news about the fall in Chinese industrial activity. The market is now 22 points off its intraday high, at 4554 points, only 5 points up on yesterday. Other Asian markets

5

What if it’s all just a bad dream?

The debt problems in the US and Europe are creating widespread bearish sentiment in stock markets. The interconnection of financial markets is so great that reading investor sentiment has become a little like trying to spot fractals. A Greek butterfly flaps its debt laden wings and a hurricane occurs in the the Standard & Poors. But what happens

7

European risk rally?

News this morning is that there is something of a breakthrough in Eurozone negotiations. From the FT: Germany and France appeared to settle their differences late on Wednesday over a new rescue package for Greece. No immediate details were available but Steffen Seibert, a spokesman for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said “a common German-French

0

Trading Day: 20th July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped over 1% on the open, and has built on those gains, rising a total of 1.61% or 73 points to 4541 points. Other Asian markets are all up, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.34% at 10022 points, and the Hang Seng steady at 21,915 points. Other risk assets are mixed, with

3

Gas is solid

Energy is pretty much a one way bet in the global economy, perhaps the best play at a time when Australia’s two speed economy is sputtering. Brokers are having a look at Woodside, just about the biggest pure energy play in the Australian market. The question, as ever, is how much is the future priced

13

Woolworths sales up 4.7%

Woolworths Limited (WOW) released their full year sales results (end of June 2011) today and it makes for interesting reading. The headline number is an increase of 4.7% in nominal terms on last year sales ($54.1 billion, up $2.4 billion). That’s an impressive result considering the flat line in other retail spending, as highlighted by

2

Trading Day: 19th July

It’s deja vu all over again – the S&P/ASX 200 fell slightly on the open, falling slightly below the June lows, before rebounding and is now steady just after midday at 4470 points. Other Asian markets are all down, with the Nikkei 225 off 0.71% at 9903 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.28% at

1

Two speeds not priced in

A report by Deutsche Bank today suggests that the two speed economy may not be being effectively priced in. The comparing with last financial year means it is not a long term comparison so of limited utility, but it may point to institutional trading strategies in the shorter term. Compared to their FY11 average, the

7

Trading Day: 18th July

The S&P/ASX 200 fell over 20 points on the open, reaching the low experience in late June, before rebounding and is now steady just after midday to 4475 points. Other Asian markets are up, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.39% at 9974 points, and the Hang Seng up 0.54% at 21,993 points. Other risk assets

17

Newscorp brand risk

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Who’s watching the watchmen? That’s the question now dogging the future not only of Rupert Murdoch’s UK media interests but Newscorp globally. How bad is this going to get for the Sun King? I have no idea. But I thought I’d offer a framework for thinking about it. When society authorises private

6

Chart of the Week

From Avid Chartist, is a great comparison of the broad US share market index, the S&P500 and the Aussie 200 – the S&P/ASX200, but both priced in USD. As I remarked about diversification recently, it’s not much chop if correlation across risk markets is 1.0. As an Aussie, I have been a little disheartened that

1

Trading Day: 15th July

The S&P/ASX 200 fell again on the open and has stabilised, now 0.38% or 17 points lower just after midday to 4473 points. Other Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.25% at 9960 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.37% at 21,858 points. Other risk assets are also mixed, with the AUD

17

Time to buy JB Hi-Fi

Yesterday the retail stocks of David Jones, Harvey Norman, Myers and JB Hi-Fi all took a hammering.  It was sparked by a David Jones earnings downgrade as well as an awful run of retail spending/consumer confidence data.  To summarise the blood letting: David Jones (DJS) plummeted 18.2% to $3.20; Myer (MYR) dropped 6.4% to $2.48;

13

Downgrading the crashed

If Macrobusiness readers are less than surprised by the downgrade of David Jones, the same cannot be said for the broking community. In their usual stampede to discover the self evident after the fact, they are turning very bearish. Sentiment, accordingly, is likely to turn ugly for the stock. Morgan Stanley says that there is

8

Trading Day: 14th July

The S&P/ASX 200 fell slightly on the open, after digesting QE-easiness from overnight markets. The market has fallen further and is now 0.57% or 25 points lower just after midday to 4489 points. Other Asian markets are also down slightly, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.37% at 9926 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.22%

2

Trading Day: 13th July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped slightly on the open, after digesting a poor performance of overnight equity markets. The market is now .47% or 21 points higher just after midday to 4516 points. Other Asian markets have also up slightly, with the Nikkei 225 steady at 9926 points, and the Hang Seng up 1% at 21,882

12

The great immoderation

To what extent do share valuation trends reflect the rises and fall of economies and countries? That is the question that occurs when reading a report from Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack on long term trends. It says that the last 30 years were exceptional for shares: The past 30 years were exceptional, for a number

6

Trading Day: the sell off continues

The S&P/ASX 200 slumped again on the open, from the very poor performance of overnight equity markets. The market is now 1.7% or 77 points lower just after midday to 4505 points. Other Asian markets have similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.5% at 9914 points, and the Hang Seng down 1.75% at 21,957

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Carbon companies

The release of the government’s carbon tax has had brokers rushing to calculate the impact on stocks. Much of it would already be priced in, of course, but now that it is (semi) official the effect on fundamentals needs to be assessed. Deutsche Bank says the impact on FY13 earnings will be modest for many carbon-intensive

1

The Macarthur Coal bid

MacArthur Coal (MCC) has received a take over bid from US energy company Peabody in conjunction with ArcelorMittal – the world’s largest steel maker.  The offer is for $15.50 per share, minus whatever dividend MCC pays this year. MCC has three operating coal mines which are all situated in central Queensland – Moorvale, Coppabella and

6

Equities Spotlight: Monadelphous (MND)

In this week’s equities spotlight, we take a look at engineering and construction firm Monadelphous. The Business Monadelphous (MND) is an Australian engineering group providing construction, maintenance and industrial services to the resources, energy, infrastructure and airline sectors.  It also offers turnkey design and construction services. Monadelphous Group operates through four major divisions: Engineering Construction

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Trading Day: 11th July

The S&P/ASX 200 slumped on the open, digesting the very poor US unemployment numbers on Friday, and the carbon pricing announcement yesterday. The market is now 1.3% or 60 points lower just after midday. Other Asian markets have smaller losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.5% at 10089 points, and the Hang Seng up down

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Can super save the stock market?

Brokers are starting to wake up to the fact that the mining boom is only going to benefit the miners. The rest of the economy is likely to struggle, not least because Australia’s government finances are strong, national debt is low. Why does this matter? Because it means the Australian dollar is likely to remain

0

Trading Day: 8th July

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher and has built on these gains from very positive leads from US overnight, and now after midday is up 47 points or 1% to 4652 points. Other Asian markets have similar gains, with the Nikkei 225 up 1% at 10170 points, and the Hang Seng up 1.17% at 22,794 points.