Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar to push higher with Euro

The bounce is on as Asian equities play catchup with stock markets much higher to end the week, while the USD flexes its muscles against the majors, sending gold and safe havens like Yen down, as the Aussie dollar is about to make a new monthly low.

Chinese stocks are moving slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to remain a smidge below the 2900 point level while the Hang Seng Index is up more than double that or aroun d 0.7% to 25880 points. Price remains under pressure below the high moving average on the daily chart, and is still anchored nearer the terminal low just below 25000 points:

Japanese share markets are doing the best as Yen sells off somewhat, with the Nikkei 225 currently up over 1.3% to 20744 points. The USDJPY pair was unable to push past the mid 106 level and is very slowly deflating but remaining above its own high moving average, currently at the 106.40 level:

The ASX200 is the best in the region, currently up 1.6% to be at 6611 points, helped by the still falling Australian dollar, now down to below its Monday morning gap open level just above the 67 handle, which could be taken out tonight:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are boisterous as confidence comes back on a whiff of air from the Chinese on its trade war with the US with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price continuing to move higher after its recent breakout above recent resistance at the 2900 point level, but can it break through tough weekly resistance overhead:

The economic calendar ends the week with two big releases: Eurozone wide CPI for August and US personal core expenditure spending for July. Have a good weekend!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • You’re playing in the secondary market ….the big boys come out for the Weekend Reading……………….

      • I like to set low standards because they’re so much easier to achieve. I refuse to let you rain on my parade, and my happiness is unabated.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Congrats. But it’s not quite everything it’s cracked up to be – you have to wait for everyone else to dribble in for starters. 😇😉

    • Nah they’ll hold. Can’t fault Bill’s logic, they need to pretend they’re not panicking.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        So you noticed too huh? Mr Evans is exceedingly good on Aussie rates. I am considering asking him to start an investment fund. Ooos. I mean blog. But he is REALLY good on rates.

    • It’s laughable to think any further drops in Interest Rates are going to help at this point. I mean we’ve had low rates for 10 years and it’s not really helped has it?

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    Hardy’s 2015 Cab Sav. $22.00. LOL. Love it when alcohol shops can’t price for value.

    And, yes. I checked twice.
    Notable as I don’t often bring home a big red with a long finish.

    And the wine’s pretty good too.

    • Country bottle shops mate. Have seen some 15 year old belters in a few.

      Best ever was a bottle of Grange behind Plexiglas in a shelf in Reading UK – asked the guy how much he wanted for it. He had no idea – said it had been there for years and was display.

      Said I’d give him £50 to unscrew it now. Just put something else in there !

      No worries.

      20 Year old Grange. (Was on £500 / day so no worries – drank it on the train into London with Cheese, crackers and home made Salami).


  2. Guess I better put dinner on for teh daughter and clean the kitchen before starting on the cheeky little chardonnay.

  3. So i’ve lost my member. I’m torn about paying $200 again due to having a fair whack in the fund that they get to clip the ticket on (no problem with that) But also of late the site seems to be copy pasted articles from other sites with little analysis or copy and pasted from past analysis. I’m not seeing the value. Particularly when I mostly enjoy reading the comments section.

    • Although it’s occurred to me you can claim it on your tax. That’s like negative gearing except with a blog!

    • Payed members or not chaps, the relevant issue is dissemination of information offered [T ot F] and the commentariat hashing it out and then reconciled over the long term E.g. critical thinking skills, exposure to new information, et al ….

      Tim and footsore I’ve watched over the years how you both have responded to new information and shifted your perceptions accordingly, would think it would be a loss to the community as a whole if you left for what ever reasons. Per se some are of the view of investors should have a broader knowledge of stuff so their decisions are reflective of it, rather than just short term expectations. This has consequences not just for us in the hear and now but kids and future generations.

      • Thanks Skip. Funnily I don’t feel my views have changed that much over time. Other than becoming more cynical of how our Scum(mo) government responds to keep the plates in the air. Ala Peachystan. However people may notice things looking in from the outside that I may not notice looking out.

      • I’m not reading they want to leave, skip, just that they want to read the comments and post without, well, paying for it. Especially, if they’ve forked over some of their super and are paying fees as well. Still, not many sites offering truth and reasonable opinion on what’s happening near and far… why we’re here, eh?

        I only got to comment for two weeks for free, before they cut me off. Paid when flush, but will be hard to renew after illness and no income. We’ll see, curiosity is my sin.. Will miss my MEMBER tag when it’s gone

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      It’s often necessary to copy and paste the BS in order to point out that it is BS ……..the engine room of this operation is two lads in a garage ( metaphorically speaking )
      grinding through the paid for advertorial press release BS MSM …….and pointing out the BS .

      …for $200 a year it’s cheap to get a valuable alternative perspective ………some times it also can be wrong …….no one can see the future ……but one investment decision based on the alternative to the big end of town view can money well spent ………

      Look at the $200 on top of your overall funds invested ……and it’s two half decent lunches ……………and the BS will still flow …….I’d say support a small check on it …..

      • TT, that is why I have always supported the site. Even before it become MB I was following HnH. With the cash invested in their fund, I am paying them about 2.3K a year, yet I still have to kick in another 200 bucks to read rehashed media. Like I said, not seeing the value.

    • Well as someone who both enjoys your posts and is not a member this can only be good for me since now you’re forced to comment in places I can access 😀

    • Yep I’ve reached the same conclusion.
      I joined the site back in the day because it *wasn’t* journalism. ie. there were market specialists and guys interested in economic theory and data analysis etc. and then you get the interesting commenting which goes along with that. And it was different.
      These days there is just too much journalism, too much prediction. Why is it necessary to predict things btw?

      • Yep, I foolishly got burned with Davids $30 IO and AUD at 50c back in 2015. That was a big lesson. I do believe in their general narrative for the most, and their heart is in the right place, just have to be careful how you position yourself. The fund has done OK so no regrets there (yet)

      • I never had the membership for investment tips. I’d much rather rely on my own analysis.
        I was interested in the analysis and the data and discussion around economic theory. At some point that seemed to change and get stuck in the instantaneity of journalism and opinion and prediction.

  4. Yeah about that TTW …. remind me again how inflation is measured and why its not inclusive of stuff that has multivariate price inputs which can skew finished price and can be all over the shop due to investor swings.

    But then again when people endlessly pound their head on the edifice of ignorance, after things don’t function the way they were indoctrinated to believe in, you’ll get that.

      • Like LBOs and Munger is a dim memory …. cashed up Corps had to offload or look like a fattened cow ready for slaughter, sprinkle in some bad incentives and blinkered ideological prose and presto ….

        The New York Times published an editorial comment on its front page in January 2019, provocatively entitled “abolish billionaires.” The editorial raised a serious question: what if instead of being a sign of economic success, billionaires are a sign of economic failure? In what ways can the boom in billionaires, and the dramatic increase in extreme wealth generally, be harmful?

        To answer this question, we need to understand the origins of billionaire wealth, and to understand how that wealth is used once it is gained. The answer to both these questions I think rightly casts doubt on the value of the super-rich in our society.

        Approximately one third of billionaire wealth comes from inheritance. It is very hard to make the case for the economic utility of inherited wealth, and instead there is a strong case for the fact that it undermines social mobility and economic progress. It creates instead a new aristocracy who are rich simply because their parents were rich which is hard to see as a good thing.

        Whether inherited or secured in other ways, extreme wealth takes on a momentum of its own. The super-rich have the money to spend on the best investment advice, and billionaire wealth has increased since 2009 by an average of 11 percent a year, far higher than rates ordinary savers can obtain.

        Bill Gates is worth nearly $100 billion dollars in 2019, almost twice what he was worth when he stepped down as head of Microsoft. This is despite his admirable commitment to giving his money away. As Thomas Piketty said in his book Capital in the 21st Century, “No matter how justified inequalities of wealth may be initially, fortunes can grow beyond any rational justification in terms of social utility.” – snip

        • Approximately one third of billionaire wealth comes from inheritance. It is very hard to make the case for the economic utility of inherited wealth, and instead there is a strong case for the fact that it undermines social mobility and economic progress. It creates instead a new aristocracy who are rich simply because their parents were rich which is hard to see as a good thing.

          It’s interesting to think about where the line should be drawn with inheritance.

          It’s one thing to say someone being given billions simply because they were born is wrong.

          It’s another thing entirely to say Great Aunt Sally shouldn’t be allowed to leave her car to a struggling niece in her will.

          • Categorical error drsmithy …

            The scope is out of context by a mile at best and has little economic underpinnings, ideology aside.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    The NSW ICAC hearings are just shining a 25 watt bulb on corrupt Straya ……..but it’s good …
    Liked to see Mr Wong getting a lesson from m’lud on the importance of being earnest ………..I hope they found he lied under oath and he joins Eddie in a cell .

    • Wow, that one is special. Hey Fan Yang, how about you fvck off back to China because if a white kid went to Chinese Uni they sure as sh1t wouldn’t get pandered to because they can’t speak mandarin.

    • Have you perhaps considered if the problem is on you, a white English-speaker living in Australia, taking much for granted, mistaking it for superiority of moral high ground and viewing your privilege as natural and invisible?


      .However, the overstatement of English language proficiency to non-English speakers means that you, as an English speaker who unconsciously consider your privilege as normative and normal — meaning, the classroom should privilege you and the daily privileges that you receive never register as special.

      Here we are ladies and gents. We are finally at the end-game where proficiency in the English language is now a privilege in Australia.

      • That second paragraph was the limit when bullsh1t detector went red and I had to close the article. Who the fvck are these cvnts that move here and expect us to roll over and basically give these people privileges that our own kids don’t get? Now being white and speaking english in Australia is racist? This sh1t needs to stop before it gets even stupider.

    • So Australian born students are privileged because they speak English and should be grateful to non english speaking foreigners in their course slowing things down and generating lower marks because of group assignments?
      What a stupid bitch.

    • You gotta wonder if this period in time will go down in history similar to the tulip bubble. World has gone mad on real estate.

  6. Watching Bladerunner Directors Cut on SBS. It’s the Sean Young “have you ever retired a human by mistake” scene. Just ducking out for 47 seconds.

  7. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I have decided that this week,
    Who doth have the courage to challenge me for this most coveted title!?

    There can be only one.


    Hong Kong: ‘Revolution is war, and no war is without bloodshed’ … Verrna Yu … The Observer / The Guardian

    Anger is rising as the state crackdown intensifies, and protesters say they are prepared for confrontation and sacrifice

    Ryan Lee, a 27-year-old computer engineer, only started taking part in Hong Kong’s demonstrations in June. Since then, it has been a steep learning curve.

    He has tackled a police officer to the ground to rescue another protester, tossed teargas canisters back at the police and covered the gas grenades with the metal dishes commonly used in Hong Kong for steaming fish.

    Within weeks, Lee has transformed into a militant “fighter” – one of the black-clad protesters in full protective gear who have faced off week after week with police behind makeshift barricades. Saturday was no exception – when police in riot gear stormed a metro station and used batons to beat passengers. … read more via hyperlink above …