Commodities

From Goldman via FTAlphaville comes the Chimerican unwind thesis I’ve been describing for several years: The financial crisis can be viewed as a number of separate but related waves.

More bad news for SA as Santos disintegrates, from BS: The listed oil and gas business is understood to have hired global corporate consultants McKinsey to undertake a brutal restructuring and cost-cutting program.

Big iron is taking a breather today as doubts creep into markets over the sustainability of the rally.

From the AFR: Highly geared Swiss miner Glencore is poised to sell assets in Australia and Chile as early as today, after putting its Hong Kong listed shares into a trading halt today.

From PIMCO via Bloomberg: The worst of the collapse in commodities prices is probably over, with oil poised to gain over the next 12 months, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.

Here are the iron ore charts for October 9, 2015: Spot flat though Tianjin benchmark caught up 1.3% at $55.60.

The Brent oil price fell sharply Friday night, down the better part of 2% to $52.54.

A couple of weekend Fairfax pieces shows how coal business is done in ‘Straya.

This story is an interesting way point in the MB thesis that the emerging markets and commodities bear market is going to conclude with a major default and debt crisis somewhere in the not too distant future.

Here are the iron ore charts for October 8, 2015: Qingdao went a little crazy but Tianjin benchmark didn’t, up 0.7%to $US54.80 and under-performing the Dalian bounce.

The mining dead cat is doing loops today as big iron flies with the unicorns and big gas dislocates from oil.

As we know, a Morgan Stanley upgrade to big miners triggered a surge in share price last in London.

There are lots of value analyses floating around today hoping for an end to the commodity bear market.

From Credit Suisse: Roy Hill will ship its first iron ore cargo on 21 October, according to POSCO, a shareholder in the mine and recipient of the cargo at its south Korean mill.

Glencore is making sense in one way today, from The Australian: One of Glencore’s top executives has issued a veiled swipe at Adani’s planned multi-billion-dollar Carmichael coal project, saying “unprofitable” taxpayer-backed mines would simply further pressure a sector already grappling with oversupply.

The Brent oil price eased a little overnight to $51.71 largely on weekly US data that showed a rise in production and storage: However, others are seeing an imminent decline, from Reuters: “We are about to see a pretty dramatic decline in U.S.

Commodity producers and emerging markets are going nuts.

Here are the iron ore prices for October 7, 2015: Chinese markets are still closed but Tianjin benchmark rose 0.7% to $54.40.

The resources dead cat is really screaming now.