I noted earlier this week that Port Hedland October shipments were weak. UBS has more:
Port Hedland exports 36.5Mt in October 2015
The Port Hedland Port Authority has released export data for October 2015. Iron ore exports totalled 36.5Mt for October 2015 (-7% m/m & -3% y/y). This brings YTD exports to 371.2Mt, up 8.5% y/y. The month of October given it has 31 days, was also down 10% m/m on a daily run rate basis at 1.18Mtpd. Recall September 2015 was a record both in terms of tonnes shipped (39.4Mt) and daily run rate basis (1.31Mtpd). We also understand that Rio Tinto exports dropped m/m, totalling ~29.4Mt for the month or 347Mt annualised, which is down 3% sequentially on a run rate basis.
BHP exports ~21.5Mt in
October We estimate BHP Billiton’s share for the month at 21.5Mt or 58.9%. This represents a soft month for BHP Billiton, down 3% sequentially and down 6% sequentially on a daily run rate basis. On an annualised basis this is a shipping rate of 253Mtpa, down from a rate of 270Mtpa over the prior two months.
FMG exports ~13Mt in the month
We estimate FMG’s share of June exports from Port Hedland at 13.1Mt, or 35.9%, down 14% sequentially. This implies an annualised rate of 155Mtpa, down from a rate of 185Mtpa in September.
Given all three majors pulled back it is tempting to put this down to a little price management (that isn’t working!).
