China Economy

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From SocGen’s Wei Yao via FTAlphaville: Three developments in the past two weeks suggest that Chinese policymakers are yielding to the pressure arising from economic deceleration and are easing the implementation of fiscal reform.

China A cautionary tale from the muddy waters of Chinese business – FT.com Weak Chinese Demand Is Pummeling Mining Stocks Everywhere, Except in China – Bloomberg China pushing ‘build now, pay later’ model to emerging world – Bruegel Development Finance with Chinese Characteristics?

From Lombard Street Research with some eye-popping charts and spot on in my book: China’s economy has slowed sharply and this will have a significant impact on global trade and GDP.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China’s HSBC Flash PMI for May is out and missed again at 49.1 versus 49.3 expected but up a little from April.

Some good material at FTAlphaville today on China’s latest stimulus efforts, first from Deutsche: Here is the context why we take LGFV financing seriously.

From UBS: FX reserves shrank sharply by USD 113 billion in Q1, following last Q4’s contraction of USD 45 billion and 2014’s annual increase of USD 22 billion. PBC’s FX asset also shrunk by RMB 252 billion in Q1 (vs. last Q4’s fall of RMB 134 billion).

From Investing in Chinese Stocks: First-tier home prices are rising, but analysts are cautious about extrapolating nationally due to inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities, iFeng: 楼市回暖房价还会涨吗 几大专家抛出重磅观点: The latest studies suggest that China will cancel the deposit ratio, releasing about 7 trillion of credit funds.

From Mac Bank via FTAlphaville: Margin positions in the Chinese equities market have continued to rise in the past month, since we wrote our first Twilight Zone note on April 20.

From the WSJ: China is reversing course on a major effort to tackle its hefty local government debt problem, marking a setback for a priority reform aimed at getting its financial house in order.

The FT’s Gavin Davies takes a look today at China’s hard landing today: …The latest monthly batch of data showing that the underlying growth rate in activity (according to our “nowcast” models), has dropped sharply to only 5.3 per cent.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. The monetary reforms taking place in China are good, necessary and inevitable in the long run, but the immediate impact of an open capital account is in dispute, with many (myself included) expecting depreciation as a result if current forces remain in effect.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Dad’s Army comes Joe Hockey “I’m not as bearish as many others about China.

China’s April data dump is bad.

The latest installment of easing arrived in China last night, from the WSJ: China is launching a broad stimulus to help local governments restructure trillions of dollars in debts while prodding banks to lend more, as fresh data added to signs of a worsening slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China has released its April data dump this afternoon and the news is bad with a deepening hard landing.