China’s top tier city realty takes off

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Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

The CREIS May report for 100 cities is out and it shows prices rising 0.45% nationally. Gainers and losers were almost even: 48 cities saw gains, 52 saw losses. Bifurcation continues: the ten largest cities saw new home prices increase 0.99%.

Source: 2015年5月中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数报告

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Some cities are going nuts again. Shenzhen is on the far left:

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In China, Shenzhen real estate is rebounding from long slump

A rainstorm that flooded roads in Shenzhen last Saturday did not stop some 4,000 people from lining up in front of the sales office of a residential community in Longhua District that had just started taking orders.

The buyers snapped up more than 700 apartments — the most expensive ones cost more than 40,000 yuan ($6,500) per square meter — in less than two hours, the developer said.

A similar scene occurred at six other developments that also opened for business over the weekend, underscoring the strength of the rebound seen in the southern city’s housing market since the central government relaxed property-related policies in September and again in March.

In recent months, the prices for new apartments in Longhua District — near Hong Kong and home to many IT companies — have soared from around 28,000 yuan to about 40,000 yuan per square meter, analysts familiar with the Shenzhen market said.

The market for second-hand apartments has also recovered.

The headline of this article in iFeng describes a situation where buyers bought 1,600 apartments in 4 hours for a total of 8 billion yuan. iFeng: 楼市上演“抢房大战” 1600套房4小时抢光

This has led regulators to announce buying restrictions will remain in effect and these sell-out situations will be strictly investigated. iFeng: 深圳楼市疯狂引官方发话:继续限购 严查”日光盘”

And as for the talk in recent days about the “out of control” Shenzhen property market, Shenzhen official said these were not objective, the official said to the excessive growth of house prices should not be exaggerated, it should be rational and proper guidance to buyers. In addition, Shenzhen will launch a series of measures to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the property market, including speeding up the sale of commodity housing approvals, accelerate new residential land supply. Fake “one day sell-outs” and other artifically exacerbated tight supply and demand “cover plate reluctant sellers” and other illegal activities, will be strictly investigated and dealt with according to law.

In the stock market, the regulators are silent as investor anxiety soars: 证监会对暴跌沉默意味深长 股民周末心发慌

“Thursday’s crash, from the daily limit to the lower limit; rebounded on Friday, and from limit to limit, such heartbeatin stock market, how to play next week, how should I do??” After Thursday’s terror after the collapse, and Friday no rebound, just received a puzzling the “doji” and SFC afternoon press conference, did not have any say on the stock market slump, which makes many investors expect policy to save the city more flustered.

Although 5000 is not a bull market top is industry consensus, but we are also cautious on the stock market next week that 5000 will be around for some time to adjust up and down or fluctuated.

…After the crash, most of the new investors suddenly gone spectrum, many investors are concerned about a regular meeting on Friday, regulators will not be so, for A shares what kind of argument or position as before. However, the Commission conference on Friday, the management did not issue any sound on the stock market plummeted.

Many investors worry 5.30 massacre reproduce, in fact 5.30 Incident Management is a sudden increase in the results of the stamp duty; and the recent market crash, is to adjust to market demand more spontaneous. “Since they do not want regulator comments to lead to a collapse, do not expect regulators to say anything to save the market.” Guangzhou Securities in a market source said, management wants the stock market to go “Manniu” way, as long as the stock market does not appear irrational continuous spike , regulators “invisible hand” will not appear, this is the stock market a sign of maturity.

Aunty Zhao, who had experience in the 2007 crash, cut her positions in half:

The old shareholders Zhao aunt experienced in the 2007 bull market slump. “Slump 5.30 is very horror, many stocks plunged 40% in a short time.” Last week coincides with the eighth anniversary of the massacre 5.30, as investors worried about the policy side appears heavy bearish again.

Zhao aunt told reporters that not only is she a lot of experienced last round of the long bear market of 5000 in the vicinity of the old shareholders have to lighten up plans. She also made full preparations, after a sharp correction on the stock market if touched 5000 points, then halve the warehouse is undoubtedly the best choice to reduce the loss. If singing all the way to seven or eight thousand points, and even break a million points, the remaining half position can guarantee themselves a share in a bull market.

Other investors are all in:

Reporters learned that many new investors are approaching 5000 points chase at the high bid, the result is “set” to live. Chen told reporters that the new investors, last week saw the market impact of 5000 points, he is extremely excited to buy what stock analysts friends advice, a friend suggested that he was not chasing the high, be careful near the 5000 shock, but he did not hold back, High chase into a small board stocks. When a friend asked him to dare to bargain-hunting after the crash, he only reluctantly said: “I have been chasing the high, all in.”

The Economic Observer also looks at the stock market in “530”魔咒之后,成长股继续“牛”?

A shares do not believe in Murphy’s Law

If you are worried about something happening, then it is more likely to occur, which is a classic description of the fourth article of Murphy’s Law.

A share of the market has once again proven the existence of Murphy’s Law. However, it seems not at all.

From entering since May, the market has experienced a few days after the opening of a new round sideways style sharp short squeeze – price, K line graph upside trend is exactly the same and the great bull market in 2007, at the 18th to the 27th, to achieve the “Eighth Yang” of the market will push the index to 4941.71 points.

However, the rapid climb in the index during those few days, the last round of experienced investors began to worry CBBC conversion occurs when the cliff is not the type to fall “530” price.

In this backdrop, May 28, 5000 stock index mark in one go after failing to turn upside down, again and again 4900,4800,4700 break point three integer mark, and eventually huge decline of 6.5% to close, resulting in two City, more than 500 stocks hit bottom, over 2000 stocks pan-green “grand.”

On that day, except under “530 Quotes” Fear in the background, the national team “Huijin” holdings of the four lines, profit-taking, brokers tighten financing and IPO soon lever multiple factors such as the market is also thought to cause big day an important reason for fall. “530 Quotes” The reason why people fear, in addition to the Ministry of Finance midnight stamp duty to raise significant policy bearish stock market brings, but also because “530” style cliff fall is the end of the bull market preview. In this round of market, the “528” crash appears therefore cause for concern.

Eight years of a reincarnation. “528” after the crash, is not it will continue the trend of “530” after the? Or yet, this bull market will be any different? After “530”, A shares where to go?

Meanwhile, more petrol is thrown on the fire such as it is, China central bank provides pledged supplementary lending to select banks:

China’s central bank has recently provided Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) to select banks, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday, as Beijing moves to support longer-term investment amid a slowing economy.

The funds were provided at 3.10 percent, lower than previous PSL rates offered that they were aware of, the individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The People’s Bank of China did not answer calls requesting comment.

The 3.1% rate represents a 31% cut in interest costs. Last year, the PSL was at a rate of 4.5%.

And this, from Bloomberg: China Considers Doubling Its Local Bond-Swap Program:

Chinese policy makers are considering plans to as much as double the size of a clean-up program for shaky local government finances, according to people familiar with the discussions.

In what would be the second stage of the program, a further 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) to 1 trillion yuan of local-government loans would be authorized to be swapped into bonds issued by provinces and cities, the people said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. The first stage of the bond swap, currently under way, is 1 trillion yuan.

An expansion would signal officials are confident in the template they’ve crafted for reducing risks from a record surge in borrowing that local authorities took on to fund a glut of investment projects. The complex process — which includes inducements for banks to buy new, longer-maturity, lower yielding bonds — is alleviating a funding crunch among provinces that had threatened to deepen the economy’s slowdown.

“It’s solving the cash-flow issue at the local governments and ensuring that infrastructure projects this year aren’t delayed,” said Nicholas Zhu, a Beijing-based senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, referring to the initial 1 trillion-yuan program. He said any additional quota probably would be for debt swaps in 2016.

Worry over slowing economic growth is the main impetus for pushing more lending, China factories scrabble for growth in May, export demand shrinks:

Growth in China’s giant factory sector edged up to a six-month high in May but export demand shrank again, prompting companies to shed jobs and keeping alive worries about a protracted economic slowdown, a government survey showed on Monday.

In a sign that China’s worst downturn in at least six years is hurting its services companies, too, a similar survey showed growth in that sector slipped to a low not seen in more than five years.

Services have been one of the lone bright spots in the Chinese economy in the last year.

The muted reports reinforced the view that authorities would have to roll out more stimulus in coming months, despite having cut interest rates three times in six months.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.