Australian Politics


LNP and ALP start well with China pushback

Via The Australian: Scott Morrison will move rapidly to mark the Pacific as his top ­strategic priority, making an early trip to the Solomon Islands next week to counter growing Chinese influence over Australia’s regional neighbours. The visit comes as Beijing ramps up regional tensions with its attempts to lure the Solomons and other small


Agony of the Left

It’s kind of pathetic to watch the agony of the left as it fights its own failure still wearing a self-imposed straight jacket. Leftie media writhed through every excuse under the Sun: it was Murdoch’s fault says Rudd, wrote Bianca Hall working classes love their tax lurks, wrote David Crowe inner city globalisation winners lost


Political trouble for the bubble down under

By Ross Elliott, cross-posted from New Geography: In a remarkable and most unexpected outcome, Australia’s conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison has retained the country’s leadership at the recent Australian Federal Parliamentary election (18 May, 2019). Morrison’s victory confounded a wide array of commentators, academics, advocacy groups, industry groups, all of the opinion polls, most of


Albo to take ALP leadership unopposed

From The ABC: Queensland MP Jim Chalmers has declared he will not run for the Labor leadership. Mr Chalmers wrote on Twitter that he had given the possibility very careful consideration, but had decided against it. “I spoke to Anthony Albanese this morning and told him I will enthusiastically support him and work tirelessly with


Incoherent Albo vows to fight for nothing

Via The Australian comes Albo, new Labor leader in waiting: “The language used was terrible … unions and employers have a common interest. Successful businesses are a precondition for employing more workers, and that is obvious.” “There are common interests that are there … and if elected I would look for solutions, not arguments. We


Darwin reeling as US to ban Chinese surveillance tech

Oh no, at the NYT: The Trump administration is considering limits to a Chinese video surveillance giant’s ability to buy American technology, people familiar with the matter said, the latest attempt to counter Beijing’s global economic ambitions. The move would effectively place the company, Hikvision, on a United States blacklist. It also would mark the


Latham gets the last laugh

Chris Bowen via Domain today: “We need to remind ourselves how to talk to the base, which is not inner city,” Bowen says in an interview. “If you look at the election, wealthy areas swung to us and poorer areas swung away from us. “When you consider our agenda was fairly redistributive, that’s pretty extraordinary.


How to destroy ScoMo in eighteen months

Via the AFR: Scott Morrison’s shock win in the federal election may have been delivered by the “battlers” – non-university educated voters in lower income brackets – and Christians. ANU professor Ben Phillips found that electorates with a lower percentage of persons with bachelor degrees and income greater than $100,000, and a higher percentage of


Chinese Communist Party greets ScoMo with the slap

Via the Communist Party of China foghorn: The surprise victory of Australia’s Liberal National coalition on Saturday gives Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party a third term in government. But apart from delivering his campaign promises to the Australian people, of which he made few, Morrison may also need to recalibrate his country’s relations with


Labor leadership turns into three horse race

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has just thrown his hat into the ring to contest Labor’s leadership, turning it into a three horse race between him, Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers. From The Australian: The Australian has confirmed Chris Bowen will run as the Right candidate for the Labor leadership… Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese has brushed


How Labor lost Middle Australia

Cross-posted from Patreon: I’m sure like most of you – you are scratching your head to explain what happened last night, and how Bill Shorten lost the Federal Election (when only months ago most people thought he would romp it home in a landslide). Read on and enjoy my thoughts: 1. Climate Change isn’t the


A hat tip for Chris Joye

Got give credit where it’s due, via Chris Joye: During the week I advised my investors, media colleagues and friends that it would not be surprising if Scott Morrison won the election comfortably. For months this column argued that the betting markets and political pundits were wrong in assuming ScoMo had no chance. Indeed, it


History is written by the victors

My day job is a mix of quantitative and fundamental investment analysis. What that essentially means is that I spend my time looking for situations where the numbers don’t match the narrative – and I can’t help but notice that in the Australian Federal election result the narrative and the numbers are miles apart. Scott


Labor begins rebuild poorly

Day one and it is reading the tea leaves all wrong at The Guardian: Anthony Albanese is making a concerted play for the Labor leadership, declaring the party’s policy direction needs to change but signalling he would promote progressive values, as the count continues after Saturday night’s election. …He signalled it would be back to


Beijing angry at Labor loss

Good news, via The Australian: The election result will not improve Australia’s relations with Beijing, says editor-in-chief of ­nationalist tabloid The Global Times, Hu Xijin, as analysts speculate that China is trying to pressure a new Morrison government to shift its position on issues such as Huawei. Since Australia banned Chinese company Huawei from supplying


Bravo Quexit!

Leith and I are relieved. Despite MB having effectively written large swathes of Labor reform policy over the past decade, after the last few months neither of us could endorse the party. That was a warning to ourselves that we ignored in favour of polling, foolishly, given that art form is now completely in the dog house.



Via the ABC: Scott Morrison has earnt a permanent place as a Liberal Party legend — returning the Government in what was meant to be an unwinnable election for the Coalition. Mr Morrison smashed the doctrine that disunity will lead to electoral death. Despite three prime ministers in two terms of government, the Queensland swing


Election ignores voters’ concerns around mass immigration

By Leith van Onselen Many of us were hoping in vain that a Shorten-led Labor Government would follow the will of the electorate and lower Australia’s immigration intake back to sensible historical levels: Sadly, the opposite is true. In February, Labor’s shadow immigration minister, Shayne Neumann, committed to a turbo charged migrant intake: Mr Neumann said


Poll Bludger gives election to Labor

Via William Bowe: Federal opinion poll aggregate and seat prediction model, drawing on polling by Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL. State results displayed through the tabs below are breakdowns of federal voting intention, rather than state voting intention.  


Shorten should send JBish to Beijing

Via the AFR’s official muckraker: Is there genuinely no bow too long for our sibling mastheads TheSydney Morning Herald and The Age to draw in their advancement mission for former Liberal deputy Julie Bishop? …Wait, apparently you can! As if six nauseating years of Peter Hartcher’s recurrent JBish hagiographies weren’t enough, the political editor – an indulged dinosaur of obsolete foreign affairs savoir-faire; a


Polls give Labor an easy win

Wishful thinking at the AFR: Labor is clinging to the slimmest of leads over the Coalition, putting it on track to fall over the line in Saturday’s federal election. The latest The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos poll shows Labor leading the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, down from