Australian interest rates

From Morgan Stanley today comes some sense at last, via ForexLive.

Via the Kouk today: If I was RBA Governor, this is the speech I would give next week The RBA Governor Phillip Lowe is giving a speech at the National Press Club next week, no doubt to recast the RBA’s view on the economy and to present its up-to-date thinking on monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will go down in history not only as the most corrupt central in the world but also the planet’s most stupid (or high).

Via The Australian comes an escaped lunatic: The clearest indicators of ongoing momentum of Australia’s economy are strong employment growth and a rapid shift in the federal budget toward surpluses, said Ian Harper, a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy-setting board.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The NAB survey revealed a sharp decline in business conditions in December to a moderate +2 from +11.

Hoocoodanode?

Which is of course an absurd proposition.

From Damien Boey at Credit Suisse Yesterday, NAB announced a 12bps increase on owner-occupier conventional mortgages, and a 16bps increase on interest-only investor mortgages.

by Chris Becker Oh it’s been a fun day so far trading Aussie dollar! First the numberwang unemployment print, now the National Australia Bank (NAB) hiking interest rates out of cycle.

By Leith van Onselen MB’s long-held view that the next move in official interest rates will be down has received support from money markets, which now ascribe a 50-50 chance of cuts by the end of the year.

By Leith van Onselen Slowly but surely, economists are falling into line with MB that the next move in official interest rates will be down, most likely this year.

You’d have to be as blind as the RBA to miss the signals.

Via the AFR: When looking back at asset performance in 2018, it is a great reminder that bonds should play a major role in an investment portfolio, and that not all bonds are created equal.

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: In 2018, one of the major themes we wrote about was the risk of impairment to the monetary transmission mechanism via out-of-cycle rate hikes.

As predictable as the Sun rising: BOQ today announced interest rates across a range of lending products will be increasing by between 11 basis points (bps) and 18 bps.

Via Martin North: Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) has released the December 2018 mortgage stress and default analysis update.

It couldn’t happen to a nicer central bank.

For anyone paying attention, one of the H&H’s excellent calls a few months ago was to get long Australian bonds as the RBA’s fantasy of future growth ran into the nasty reality of a housing and China bust.

Via Bloomie over the weekend: President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as his frustration with the central bank chief intensified following this week’s interest-rate hike and months of stock-market losses, according to four people familiar with the matter.

Bravo Chris Joye who appears to be the only other writer with any balls or brains in the financial press today: RBA governor Phil Lowe needs to pull his head in.

Yes RBA, you are behind the curve.

Via the UBS rates team today: The RBA Sentiment Index – our proprietary tracker for hawkishness/dovishness in the RBA minutes – shows that the bank’s tone turned more dovish at its meeting in November.

Via Bloomie: Sydney’s plunging house prices are usurping a prolonged wage slump as the key worry for the central bank, with markets now showing more chance of an interest-rate cut than a hike in 2019.