Australian Economy

Recession anyone?

By Leith van Onselen Premier Mark McGowan has promised better times ahead for Western Australians, vowing to create “at least” 150,000 jobs over five years.

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s business leaders have finally admitted they are concerned about Australia’s crashing property market and falling consumer demand.

Throughout this cycle, MB has gotten wages right.

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s wages price index released by the ABS revealed a softening of annual wages growth to 2.27%: However, when adjusted for underlying inflation, which has softened, real wages firmed to 0.45% growth in the year to December: However, there remains a big disconnect between the private and public sectors.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for December, which continued to show a trend rise in the number of inbound visitors, with both Chinese arrivals and student arrivals hitting an all-time high.

Via the AFR, only a week late: The economy is at risk of a “doozy recession” as the housing downturn accelerates at an “alarming pace” weakening consumer sentiment, warns former Morgan Stanley global strategist Gerard Minack.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of December, which posted record annual permanent and long-term arrivals, as well as the highest net arrivals in 4 1/2 years.

From Treasury genius Phil Gaetjens this morning: Treasury Secretary Philip Gaetjens has warned that “falling house prices could also cause consumer spending to be weaker than forecast” and said “care must be take” on mortgage broker reforms.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its Labor Price Index for the December quarter of 2018, which revealed more disappointing wages growth: According to the ABS, wages grew by just 0.54% (s.a.) and 0.54% (trend) in the December quarter.

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.29% in December to –0.43% in January.

Via Bartho: The national broadband network is on track, both in terms of the rollout of the network and its financials.

Via FTAlphaville: A recent petition at a University of Toronto campus drew on a familiar rhetorical strain.

Via Reuters: Chinese coal traders are halting purchases of Australian coal and coking coal as clearing times through China’s customs have at least doubled to 40 days or more, four traders at major buyers told Reuters on Monday.

Via the AFR: Coles’ net profit fell 29.4 per cent to $381 million in the six months ending December after Australia’s second largest food and liquor retailer booked $146 million in supply chain restructuring charges.

The warnings of slower services activity spreading from the housing bust continue to mount.

By Leith van Onselen Back in December, the higher education program director at the Grattan Institute, Andrew Norton, warned that Australia’s universities have become dangerously reliant on Chinese students.

By Leith van Onselen Credit Suisse has warned that a Shorten Labor Government would result in “cascading” wage increases and an increase labour’s share of national income.