Australian Economy

As we know, the global economy is on the edge of an oil shock as Saudi Arabia reels from Houthi rebel attacks.

Via the excellent George Tharenou at UBS: …we expect RBA rate cuts & APRA credit easing to trigger a ‘mini-boom’ for home prices (5-10% y/y) & home loans (15-20% y/y).

First, I need to set the scene.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for July.

Federal Minister for Employment Michaelia Cash has called on businesses to invest more in workforce training.

New car sales have now declined for 17 months, longer than a 15-month decline that occurred during the global financial crisis (GFC): Now, a new report from KordaMentha indicates that car ownership is viewed as ‘more optional’ than in the past.

Via The Conversation: Record warm temperatures above Antarctica over the coming weeks are likely to bring above-average spring temperatures and below-average rainfall across large parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures statistics for the month of July, which reveals that the number of permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia remains turbo-charged.

Queensland LNP senator Gerard Rennick has used his maiden speech to call for Australia’s immigration levels to be slashed, likening Australia’s immigration program to ‘over stocking’ paddocks: While economic growth is important, it should not come at a cost to our quality of life.

Via The Guardian: A new snapshot of Australia’s clean energy sector warns new investment committed in the first half of 2019 has fallen back to 2016 levels, when Tony Abbott invited an investment strike when he tried to abolish the renewable energy target.

No ScoMo miracle here.

Via The Age: International students have been banned from contesting student elections at one of Victoria’s most prestigious universities, in a move to stop a group of Chinese students seizing control of the student union.

So says the NAB business survey: 2011 called.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The NAB business confidence survey for August was quite soft.

Via ANZ: Households’ perception of current financial conditions fell 4.8% last week, more than reversing a cumulative 1.7% gain over the previous two weeks.

Via Westpac: • The Australian Chamber–Westpac Survey of Industrial trends, Australia’s longest running business survey dating from 1966, provides a timely update on manufacturing and insights into economy-wide trends.

Via NAB comes the business survey: Not much to crow about there.

I know we’re the lucky country but the Wall Street Journal has lost it today: Luckily for Australia, the U.S.-China trade war happened.

Via the excellent George Theranou at UBS: Given consumer sentiment is average, & house prices are rebounding, we assume ~half the tax refunds are spent on retail, & another ~20% on other consumption, a relatively high ~0.7 marginal propensity to consume.