Australian Economy

You don’t say.

Retail sales figures released by the ABS will boost December quarter GDP when the national accounts are released early next month.

Via Westpac just now: A viral epidemic centred in China’s Hubei Province has escalated materially in recent weeks, resulting in the World Health Organisation (WHO) declaring a public health emergency of international concern in late January.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) has released its new car sales report for January, which saw annual car sales collapse to their lowest level since mid-2012, driven by crashing passenger motor vehicle (PMV) sales: Annual new car sales are now running 12.4% below their March 2018 peak.

After November’s Black Friday driven lift in retail sales, the inevitable slowdown occurred in December, with retail sales falling by 0.5%: However, in trend terms, annual retail sales growth rose to 2.8%.

Via the ABC: But AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver is not as sanguine.

On Monday, the ABS released dwelling approvals data for the December, which revealed a modest rebound in trend terms driven by units & apartments: It’s once again time to examine how Australia’s dwelling supply is tracking against population growth.

Via Deloitte: Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor: Falling confidence hits investment outlook 5 February 2020:  As the past year has seen a marked rise in global uncertainty, businesses have responded by retaining profits rather than investing in new projects that will raise their future productive capacity.

ANZ now expects GDP to decline 0.1% q/q in Q1, with the impact from the coronavirus taking 0.5ppt off growth #ausecon — Felicity Emmett (@felicity_emmett) February 4, 2020 It was only 0.2% a few days ago.

From Roy Morgan Research: In January 2020 Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 2.9pts (-2.8%) to a nearly nine-year low of 101.6. Business Confidence has only been lower during the last decade when it briefly dipped below the neutral level of 100 in July 2011 (99.8) during the height of the European sovereign debt crisis.

Via the AIG: A few more houses is good.

The Australian Mines & Metals Association’s (AMMA) push for a review of the Fair Work Commission (FWC) has been criticised by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU).

Via Domain: Australian government officials are negotiating with Chinese authorities to relax its internet firewall to give international students access to online and video teaching from Australian universities.

Via Martin North: The latest results from our household surveys to end the end of January reveals that mortgage stress continues to push higher with 32.8% of households now impacted, representing more than 1.1 million borrowing households.

The Australian’s Adam Creighton has done a terrific job destroying the Morrison Government’s “resilient” narrative on the Australian economy: Let nobody think the Coalition government lacks ambition, let alone a meaningful agenda.