Australian Economy

A new survey undertaken by the Melbourne Institute shows that one in three Australians are experiencing financial stress due to the coronavirus lockdown.

Australia’s official unemployment rate is forecast to peak at around 10% during the COVID-19 lockdown, according to the Australian Treasury.

Via the AFR: Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has warned the Morrison government to resist any temptation to cut immigration in response to a spike in the jobless rate.

While most sectors of the Australian economy are being hit hard by COVID-19, Australia’s protected property development industry are grinning with both the Victorian and New South Wales governments relaxing planning rules and ‘red tape’ to spur development.

She is not happy.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the March quarter 0f 2020 which registered rising underlying inflation.

Nobody cares right now given a world of depressionary data and limitless stimulus but Australia’s terms of trade are correcting fast.

Via Nouriel Roubini: After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes.

Bloomberg’s Australian economist, James McIntyre, has released research examining the potential fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Australian economy, which he predicts could have lasting impacts until 2022.

By Gareth Aird, senior economist at CBA Key Points: The increase in government benefit payments over the past month has been bigger than the fall in wages and salaries paid.

The ABS has released its Migration Australia report for 2018-19, which reveals that Melbourne has become the nation’s immigration capital overtaking Sydney: As shown above, an absurd 77,400 net migrants inundated Melbourne last financial year, equating to nearly 1,500 migrants a week.

Via Fitch today: Economic fallout due to the coronavirus pandemic is the greatest risk for Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to 74% of Australian fixed-income investors that took part in the 2020 Fitch Ratings/KangaNews Australian fixed-income investor survey.

KPMG estimates that Australia’s tourism industry has shed at least 100,000 jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Via the AFR: Just one in seven consumers expect their spending to normalise when the Australian economy improves, according to a survey of more than 13,000 households and almost 6000 consumers by data analytics company IRI.

It doesn’t pay to be rational, according to Bloomie: Australian shares may revisit the seven-year low reached last month as oil volatility and worries over the financial impact of the coronavirus dampened a recent rally.

For years, the ABC has been the go to platform for biased pro-immigration reporting. It regularly provides space to contributors pushing the ‘Big Australia’ agenda, like Liz Allen and Abul Rizvi, while rarely (if ever) giving space to those seeking lower, sustainable levels of immigration.

Here’s the base case: Bartho has the less sanguine version: The differences in outcomes between the scenarios are stark…the losses of output will be unpalatable if the worst-case scenario plays out.

Modelling undertaken by Ernst & Young on behalf of the Business Council of Australia highlights the potential impact of coronavirus lockdown measures on the Australian economy.

Callam Pickering, economist at global jobs site Indeed, has updated his job postings data, which is tracking 55% below the same period last year: However, Pickering notes that “there are some early signs of improvement” given “new job postings have increased a third from their recent low”.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has vowed to return the JobSeeker allowance (formerly Newstart) back to $560 a fortnight once the coronavirus lockdown has ended.

By Gareth Aird, senior economist at CBA Key Points: The true deterioration in the Australian labour market as a result of the COVID‑19 pandemic is not expected to be adequately reflected in the reported change in the level of employment or the unemployment rate.