Australian budget

By Ross Elliott, cross-posted from The Pulse Unless you’ve been on holidays in some remote place over Christmas you’d have noticed that trains have been making the news a lot lately in south east Queensland.

By Leith van Onselen John Howard was always the master of ‘middle-class welfare’, as evidenced by the questionable increases in the eligibility for the Aged Pension, baby bonuses, family tax benefits, and superannuation concessions under his watch.

By Leith van Onselen Back in July 2016, Consolidated Land and Rail Australia (CLARA) Pty Ltd – an Australian private group – launched a long-term plan to deliver high speed rail between Sydney and Melbourne.

We all know that Australia is secretly an emerging market (EM), characterised as it is by dodgy governance, a resources curse, rent-seeking, asset bubbles and weak external accounts.

The integrity of Australian treasuries across the country is collapsing as lies have become forecasting de rigueur.

I’m afraid S&P that you have missed an excellent brand repair opportunity in Australia, via David Uren: The projected budget surplus of about $1.1 billion will be achieved only because of a reclassification of about $4bn in Future Fund earnings in that year, not because of any improvement in under­lying budget performance.

From Morgan Stanley: We expect Australia will lag the global rotation from monetary to fiscal easing, with the Mid-Year Budget update still focused on austerity and preservation of the sovereign AAA-rating.

The MYEFO remain center-stage today as we wend our way through Australia’s grey-beard commentary responses.

Geez he’s quick on his feet this one: Treasurer Scott Morrison has staunchly denied he has “promised” returning a balanced budget by 2021 – the line drawn in the sand by S&P Global Ratings – saying it will depend on the support of a restive Senate cross bench and Labor.

Yesterday I listed the forecasting lies in the MYEFO and today there’s more from the parameter changes via Peter Martin: The ratings agencies won’t fall for it, and neither should you.

From S&P: S&P Global Ratings said today that the Australian government’s mid-year budget update has no immediate effect on the credit rating or outlook on the Commonwealth of Australia (unsolicited ratings AAA/Negative/A-1+).

Via the AFR: Mr White said that, while he thought growth in Australia’s house prices would remain steady, he shared some concerns over the macroeconomic prospects.

Fitch ash affirmed the AAA.

He just never learns.

From Bill Evans at Westpac: • The Treasurer will release the Federal Government’s MidYear Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) on Monday, December 19.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Since the late 1970s it has largely been the consensus that “big government” is detrimental to growth.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: It’s a time-honoured tradition for older and younger generations of Australians to argue about whether government is treating them fairly.

From David Uren today: Treasury is bracing for a pasting.

From Adam Boynton at Deutsche: MYEFO likely to present a worse fiscal outlook than the May budget Publishing a budget or MYEFO (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) preview comes with an interesting question.

By Leith van Onselen The notion that Australia’s unions are warriors for fairness just got kicked to the curb, with the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) engaging in a despicable robo-calling campaign against the Coalition’s equitable changes to the Aged Pension.

From David Uren: Scott Morrison is ruling out the use of cash handouts or other budget stimulus measures to support the economy, amid differing views between two of the government’s top mandarins.

From David Uren today: Credit ratings agencies are ­warning they will not accept ­forecasts they consider unrealistic in next week’s budget update, with one predicting weaker growth will push the combined level of federal and state debt about $50 billion higher this ­financial year.