Gold surged on Friday night to $1396 oz. after the release of some very poor housing data from the US. New home sales were expected to fall in July but only 1.4% so the 13.4% drop was a huge miss and we saw the US dollar and other markets react instantly. Gold is now just
Yesterday the Twitterverse was agog at the likelihood that after six down days in a row the Dow was likely to rally last night – and so it came to pass with US stocks up across the board even after the Nasdaq had to suspend trading after some glitches hit its network. At the close,
Rightyo so the Fed didn’t say anything contentious or unexpected and as David has written this morning in his piece on the Jedi Fed “When the Fed tapers now is really immaterial. The possibility of it is all that matters.” Which of course is dead right and what really hit markets overnight. The key phrase from
The news headlines are about the troubles in the emerging markets but its is really developed markets that are the focus of the big swings and the big capital allocations. Why else would the Aussie be under so much pressure against the euro, sterling and yen in the past couple of days unless it is
Over the past month there has been a strong divergence in economic release between the G10 (strong), the BRIC’s (weak) and emerging markets (weak but not as weak as the BRIC’s). This data flow has ignited a capital flow away from emerging markets and back toward developed markets as we saw with the strong rally
A couple of week’s back I asked if the Aussie dollar low was in and since then the Aussie has rallied pretty well even as I’ve been on the wrong side of it. But there is an emerging sign that the data globally is picking up and if that is the case then it is unlikely
Last night’s price action in the US dollar and sell of in US stocks is dedicated to Frankie Valli. Oh what a night! The USD was strong early after jobless claims fell to an almost 6 year low of 320,000 but the the absolute collapse of the Philly Fed index knocked the dollar from its
Data out of Europe overnight continued the recent trend of better than expected performance for the EU and other developed markets. GDP growth for Q2 was a great and very welcome surprise was the pick up in French GDP of +0.3% (-0.1% expected), German GDP (+0.7% v 0.6% expected) and overall EU GDP which was +0.3%
Bonds rates around the world moved higher, sharply so, overnight on the back of the better than expected data in the US and in Europe. Retail sales in the US looked disappointing on the face of it printing just 0.2% against 0.3% expected but this was largely because auto sales were lower with the core
Is it just me or was the price action in gold and the US dollar over the first day of the week and the data from Japan a little sign that maybe a safe haven trade might be gaining a bit of traction once again. Lets think about what we have to drive this type
The big question for this week is whether the Aussie short covering rally can persist if the euro and sterling’s rally is going to fade and may have topped out on Thursday. It is an interesting question because we know that there was a lot of buying in the Aussie last week after it made a
The Chinese data changed the whole game plan yesterday with the much better than expected outcomes of +5.1% for exports and +10.9% for exports igniting rallies in the Aussie and the commodity bloc currencies, in copper and other global metals and overnight giving a more positive tone to stock markets. Data in Germany though was pretty poor
Interesting night overnight with more Taper talk in the US, a less dovish than expected Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and a much stronger yen than anyone could really imagine given the challenges of the Japanese economy. In the end it was taper talk which hit the US stock markets which were down a
Taper talk was the big thing overnight with Charles Evans from the Chicago Fed putting it back on the table as early as September to some traders minds although I think based on what he said it is more likely to be a Dectaper rather than a Septaper. Stocks didn’t like this message and given
Is the Aussie Dollar low in? It’s a question worth asking after the move to 0.8846 yesterday was just 16 points above the tentative trend line that I have drawn on the weekly charts. Many readers will think that the trend line stuff is witch craft but techincals are a big part of my toolkit.
A very interesting night on markets and particularly FX markets Friday after the non-farm payrolls missed to the downside printing just 162,000 rather than the 184,000 that the market had expected. The disappointment ignited some serious US dollar selling across the board. What was striking by the end of play however was just how poorly the
It seems Goldilocks is in the house again with the reinforcement of lower rates and the better than expected data in both Europe and the US driving stocks and the US dollar higher overnight. We’ve seen a reaffirmation of low rates for the long term from the three big central banks (Fed, BoE and ECB) at a time when the
Stocks in the US didn’t rally last night but you would have to ask yourself why not given the Goldilocks nature of the releases. GDP data was stronger than expected coming in at 1.7% (annualised, not really strong but better than expected) with a GDP deflator of just 0.7% against expectations of 1.0% down from 1.3%
Glenn Steven’s Anika Foundation speech lived up to expectations I had for it yesterday. Over many years now Governor Stevens has used this speech to look at the structure and outlook for the economy and it has become his best speech for the year. Yesterday did not disappoint with the Governor making it clear that
Nothing terribly exciting overnight but the price action across the board clearly reflects a bit of near term concern about the potential that the Fed will signal its intention to taper at the FOMC meeting this week. Accordingly, it seems that there was a bit of a risk-off move (as over used as that phrase
This is a huge week. I’d posit it is the biggest week of the year in terms of central bank announcements and data releases and I’d suggest that by the end of this week we may not still be any clearer on where the Fed is at with regard to the Septaper (unless non-farm payrolls
The Fed must be pleased, the Oracle they have spawned is doing his darnedest to get the message across but in the meantime is causing materially increased volatility in FX markets at least but also in stocks and bonds. I’m using pleased in this context as a pejorative because while it has been important for
Data dominated over the past 24 hours with stronger US and European data hitting bond markets and driving yields up and buoying the US dollar against the majors. It was also data that weighed on the stock market in the US which seems a little less certain Septaper isn’t on but lets face it that’s
It is a huge day for the Aussie dollar today with the release of the CPI which is the single most important data point I reckon for the markets expectations or otherwise for RBA cuts, or not. Obviously the Aussie’s life is not entirely its own as all currencies are buoyed by the weaker US
Rightyo, so yesterday was an interesting day. A day where the Japanese push toward monetary accommodation and a weaker yen was reinforced by the G20 and the Upper House Japanese election but the yen gained. I’m not actually sure it had anything to do with the yen. It looks more like a US dollar move
It could be a big day for markets in Asia today given the resounding victory of the ruling LDP Party of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Upper House elections over the weekend. For the first time in 6 years, and since Abe left the office of PM the last time, both Houses will be
The focus has rightly been on Ben Bernanke this past two days and the Fed Chairman faced the Senate overnight for the second day of quizzing and questioning. As with the previous session in front of the House Bernanke gave soothing sounds about the difference between tapering and tightening rates and made it clear the
Hats off to the Fed Chairman for being able to have delivered the message last night that the Fed is going to taper but it is a path that is not set in stone either. After a couple of months of volatility on the back of the Fed Chair’s and his colleagues words this is
Not much matters in the next 24 hours other than the words Fed Chairman Bernanke utters tonight up on Capitol Hill. There is plenty of room for clarification of last week’s clarification of the difference between a taper and an interest rate rise. There is plenty of room for obfuscation if lawmakers press him too hard
Markets in the US made a new all time closing high on the Dow and S&P again overnight after the Chinese GDP data was not as bad as it might have been and many feared and the weaker than expected retail sales which print just 0.4% against the 0.8% expected undermined notions of the taper
