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Mortgage repayments to double for half a million Aussies

Fixed mortgage rates have already ratcheted up, as illustrated in the next chart from CoreLogic: While not captured above, variable mortgage rates have also begun drifting higher following the RBA’s 0.25% hike in the cash rate earlier this month. Steve Mickenbecker from financial comparison site Canstar has warned that around half a million Australians could

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Walls close in on Australian first home buyers

Corelogic’s 2022 housing affordability report, released last week, showed that aspiring first home buyers are being squeezed hard by surging mortgage payments and rents. While the proportion of income required to service a mortgage remains below record highs, it has risen substantially over the past year across both the capital cities and regions: Moreover, the

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Links 17 May 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Bitcoin’s 50% crash erases all of Elon Musk’s gains on Tesla balance sheet – Fortune Saudi Aramco Posts Record Quarterly Profit on Surging Oil Prices – WSJ Global Prices Expected To Rise As India Bans Wheat Exports – Says Results of the week of the blockchain industry – Medium

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have had a tepid response to the bounces on overseas markets from Friday night, with Chinese shares still spooked by the latest retail data showing the middle kingdom is slowing down appreciably. Currency markets remain constrained by a very strong USD with the Australian dollar reverting from its tiny fightback on Friday

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Australia dives 14 places in World Press Freedom Index

Following Australia’s dive down Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index over the Coalition’s term: Australia has also plunged 14 places in one year in the World Press Freedom Index, from 25th place out of 180 to 39th place: Press freedom is fragile in this island-continent of 26 million people, where ultra-concentration of media ownership, combined with growing

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Minor parties run policy rings around majors

Prosper Australia has released its 2022 Federal election scorecard, which compares their policy platforms against the major Lib/Lab duopoly. Prosper’s scorecard covers the following key areas of policy, ranked in order of importance: Tax reform – Here we are looking for policy that shifts economic activity from unproductive rent seeking. We are looking for tax

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Will US house prices crash again?

Calculated Risk does the analysis. CR was superb in the lead-up to the GFC (and ever since). Bill McBride is neither a rusted-on bull nor bear.  If he is right then the Fed has more work to do.  — It is clear that over the next year house price growth will slow from the torrid

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Macro Morning

Friday night finally saw a proper bounceback on stock markets after weeks of downside volatility with Chinese shares leading the way into the European session and then Wall Street taking over after desperately trying to find a bottom in the mid-week. While the latest US consumer sentiment figures disappointed, the Fed is still ready to

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Morrison feeds more first home buyers to property meat grinder

Over recent months we witnessed the Coalition and Labor launch a raft of new “housing affordability” policies – from home loan guarantees to shared equity schemes – aimed at driving more first-time buyers into the housing market and propping up housing values. Yesterday, a desperate Scott Morrison announced that if re-elected, the Coalition would allow

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Australian dollar dead cat screetches

DXY took a breather Friday night as risk dead cat bounced: AUD screetched higher: Oil too which is self-defeating, self-evidently: Not so much metals: Miners eked out gains: EM stocks and junk too: The Treasury curve steepened: Stocks roared: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US consumer sentiment (Michigan University) disappointed at 59. (est. 64.0, prior

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Australia’s housing market braces for record interest rate rise

Freelance journalist Tarric Brooker has authored an interesting article estimating how forecast interest rate rate rises would compare with Australia’s historical experience. Rather than examining raw interest rate increases, Brooker has instead calculated the percentage change in mortgage interest repayments from the trough to the peak of the interest rate cycle. The analysis shows that

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It’s time for a skilled visa overhaul

At the same time as Australia’s business groups are arguing for a real cut in the minimum wage, they are reportedly in a state of “despair over sluggish immigration flows”: Australia’s visa system needs an overhaul to accelerate skilled labour flows… Over the past decade, excluding 2021, permanent long-term visitor numbers averaged 162,000 during the

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Links 16 May 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Tesla, Twitter shares drop as Elon Musk’s legal issues grow – ABC The Meltdown of ‘stablecoin’ Terra shows an Urgent need for Regulation to Protect Consumers – Guardian Mag How More Than $1 Trillion of Crypto Vanished in Just Six Months – WSJ Stocks Trim Weekly Losses With Friday

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Macrobusiness Sundries: 14-15 May, 2022

Camden Haven ‘Dear MB friends, we hope you find the photos selected of some interest. Camino del Santiago from Saint Jean pied de Port in France to Burgos Spain. 15 days 370klms ‘   Geoff McVeigh   Autumn leaves at Braidwood   Butcher Bird with mince at Watson   Ritualised Forms Queenscliff Pier sunrise  

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Weekend Reading: 14-15 May 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Bitcoin’s plunge is hitting the little guy who got into crypto during COVID worst of all – Valkyrie Cryptofunds Twitter freezing hiring and cutting costs as execs depart – CNBC Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency – Yahoo Disney Plus added almost 8 million new subscribers as