On Tuesday (Wednesday Australian time), the American people will go to the polls for one of the most consequential midterm elections in living memory, as President Donald Trump’s Republican Party attempts to defend their control of Congress and the Senate.
At this stage it’s not looking favourable for the President, with aggregate polling analysis from Real Clear Politics suggesting Democrats will win control of Congress and also gain the narrowest of majorities in the Senate (51-49).
While there is increasingly doubts about the accuracy of outcomes priced in by prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the Senate currently being priced in is even more favourable for Democrats, producing a prediction of 53 to 47 in favour of Democrats.
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