Coal’s demise is greatly exaggerated

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Javier Blas, energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg, posted the following chart on X (Twitter) showing how the International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently underestimated global coal demand, which is running around 1 billion tonnes higher (~9%) than the agency had expected only five years ago:

King Coal

“The forecasting error equals to the anual demand of the EU, Japan and the US — combined”, Blas noted.

The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, considered the gold standard for tracking what powers the world, was released in July and revealed that global coal consumption hit a record high after growing by 0.7% in 2025.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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