The first of two current shipments from Simndou has arrived in China.
There are no reports of further January shipments.
Operations are limited by the return of 18 locomotives to China, which were supposed instead to be made by Wabtec (Westinghouse) or in the US.
Another 37 locomotives are scheduled for delivery by March, and 82 within a year.
These should arrive on schedule, so these initial hiccups will pass.
20mt seems a reasonable estimate for Simndou volumes in 2026, but be aware that they will be backloaded into H2, and the flow volumes will already be meaningfully higher than the annual stock by year-end.
Most analysts see this as immaterial to prices. I do not.
Iron ore is very financialised these days, and I see Simandou volumes weighing heavily on sentiment the deeper in the year we get, as majors produce more and Chinese demand keeps falling.
