Bears growl at “cracking” iron ore market

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The iron ore price has risen by about 7% so far in 2025, but CBA head of commodities Vivek Dhar warns that oversupply concerns could soon see the price of the steel input fall below $US$100 per tonne.

Dhar notes that demand headwinds are accelerating in China, while shipments from the Simandou project in Guinea have commenced.

“With demand headwinds accelerating in China and new seaborne supply starting from the Simandou project in Guinea, we continue to see the case for iron ore prices falling below $US100/t soon on oversupply concerns”, Dhar said.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.