Will BHP and RIO monopolise iron ore?

Wednesday 22 October 2025

The ferrous complex is struggling to keep its head above water as steel production remains too high, inventories are bulging, and prices keep falling.

The market for iron ore is, I suspect, clinging to hope that Beijing will stimulate again. But anti-involution is crashing commodity-intensive capex activity. Only tech is booming.

If Beijing sticks to its word, there is no rescue coming. Admittedly, a sizeable “if”.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.