The ferrous complex likes to stick to seasonal patterns, but the signs are not good when steel gives way.
Nor when PMIs give way.
China official NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.3 in July, vs. 49.7 in June.
Official non-manufacturing PMI: 50.1 in July, vs. 50.5 in June.
The construction PMI fell notably in July to 50.6 (vs. 52.8 in June). NBS noted that construction activity slowed down in July due to recent adverse weather conditions such as persistent high temperatures and heavy rain/flooding in some regions.
Nor when property hurtles into the abyss.
The value of new-home sales by the 100 largest property companies dropped 24% from a year earlier to 211.2 billion yuan ($29.3 billion), according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. Sales plunged 38% from 339 billion yuan in June, Bloomberg calculations show.
“The property sector is still in deep trouble,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a recent note.
I am short for Sep/Oct seasonal weakness, but as DXY keeps rising, it might come early.
