Iron ore bears gather

Wednesday 9 July 2025

The ferrous market is bifurcating as traders wonder about the steel ouput cut.

CISA steel output is falling anyway. My view is we are likely to follow the 2023 pattern in H2 as official cuts, steel export falls, and tariffs take their toll.

UBS has joined the bears.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.