The Market Ear on diving US leading indicators.
Post crisis lows
VIX at the lowest levels since the early April panic. Note the aggressive VVIX implosion, as well as the latest little bid in VVIX. Volatility is not dirt cheap, but early long volatility positions/hedges are starting to screen attractive again. Our full volatility note from earlier today here.
Source: Refinitiv
Not all stress at recent lows
Skew has managed holding up lately. The gap vs VIX is getting a bit short term wide. People starting to pay up for downside protection again?
Source: Refinitiv
Desperate for a pause
Google “buy gold” searches have exploded, moving in close tandem with gold spot. This should calm down…
Source: GS
CTAs need to sell some gold
It is not momentum related, but more volatility related, writes GS.
Source: GS
Deep into recessionary territory
The new order components of the regional Fed PMIs have collapsed deep into recessionary territory. More on macro from earlier today here.
Source: BCA
US 10 year
The 10 year has not closed this low since April 1…RSI not oversold, but far from overbought levels we saw not long ago.
Source: Refinitiv
More downside potential in rates…
…at least as the “old” connection between rates and oil seems to be “back”.
Source: Refinitiv
Dislocation
“…investors have priced in more rate cuts from the Fed, alongside much higher inflation” (DB)
Source: DB
I am a seller of rallies.
