Iron ore primed to crash

Qingdao iron ore fell a little to $95.82. SGX and Dalian were weak overnight.

Last week, we passed some tipping point for steel. Chinese exports have stalled and with them HRC demand:

Both rebar and HRC futures are in free fall:

The weakness has crushed steel margins:

So, steel output is tanking:

Iron ore destocking is next. Inventory is huge:

Though less so at mills, it will not matter if steel output keeps falling and they begin reselling contract cargoes:

Supply is booming:

The market needs to take out high-cost Indian supply first. $80 will do it.