Banana Man rescues iron ore

Tuesday 2 July 2024

Don’t mistake this for anything other than a speculative bid looking towards the Third Plenum mid-month. Steel mill margins are already wrecked by those yawning jaws:

Dalian is its usual crazy self. Iron ore:

Coking coal:

As Banana Man bids:

The June Steel PMI softened:

Global steel output is running at about 2019 levels:

But global iron ore seaborne supply is up around 70mt since 2019:

The difference is lower steel recycling share in China absorbing more iron ore and FE inputs stockpiling.

Even so, Chinese steel mill order books are sickening:

Excess capacity is burgeoning:

And all ferrous prices should keep on falling once Banana Man pukes.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.