Canada’s population grew by more than 1.2 million last year, driven almost entirely by net overseas migration:
This population explosion has sent rental inflation soaring:
A new note from the National Bank of Canada confirms “the extreme imbalance between supply and demand for homes”, driven by Canada’s extreme immigration program:
“A just-released report from CMHC confirms the extreme imbalance between supply and demand for homes that characterizes Canada’s housing sector”.
“According to the organization, the rental vacancy rate fell to a historic low of 1.5% in 2023 as supply failed to keep pace with strong demand fueled by record population growth”.
“Sadly, this imbalance is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, according to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest monetary policy report released last week”.
“In fact, the BoC is now forecasting population growth of about 800,000 in both 2024 and 2025, with only a limited increase in housing starts”.
“Our central bank claims, “that persistent structural supply challenges and strong underlying demand from population growth will likely continue to put upward pressure on house and residential prices”.
“Based on the BoC’s latest forecast for population growth and housing investment, we estimate that the rental vacancy rate is likely to fall below 1% over this period, keeping rent inflation uncomfortably high for the 37% of Canadian households that make up the renter population (made up of many newcomers)”.
“So much so that the Bank of Canada expects shelter inflation to account for about 50% of total inflation over the next two years (almost double its 26% weight in the CPI basket) and “act as a material headwind against the return of inflation to the 2% target”.
Australia is experiencing similar pressures courtesy of the Albanese government’s record immigration program:
Like Canada, Australia’s rental vacancy rate has collapsed and rents have soared:
The key difference is that rents comprise only around 6% of Australia’s CPI basket, versus its 26% weight in Canada’s CPI basket.
If Australia used the same rental weight as Canada, Australia’s CPI inflation would obviously be far higher.
