Global Housing

4

Canada’s housing market braces for interest rate shock

Like most English-speaking nations, Canadian house prices boomed over the pandemic, soaring 32% since February 2020 according to Teranet: The surge in prices was led by Canada’s largest city Toronto where prices surged 37% over the pandemic. However, like most nations, Canada’s mortgage rates have begun to rise, jumping by around 0.8% since March, according

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Grantham: “Day of reckoning” coming for global housing markets

Investment legend Jeremy Grantham has labelled the pandemic global property boom the “fifth great bubble of the modern era” and has warned of an impending global property bust as central banks ‘normalise’ interest rates: Grantham is convinced that we’re in the midst of a fifth great bubble of the modern era, following the Wall Street

7

Canada finally bans foreigners from buying homes

With Canada’s dwelling values rising by around 50% over the pandemic: The Trudeau Canadian Government will ban foreigners from buying homes for two years while also boosting housing supply in a bid to boost housing affordability: Canada will ban most foreigners from buying homes for two years and provide billions of dollars to spur construction

3

Demographia: Australia third most unaffordable housing market

The 2022 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey has been released and, once again, it ranks Australia as having one of the most expensive housing markets out of the countries surveyed. This year’s report assesses 92 major markets (metropolitan areas) in eight nations for the third quarter of 2021. The nations assessed are: Australia, Canada, Hong

26

Singapore whacks foreign investors with massive stamp duty hike

Free-market Singapore has levied massive stamp duties on foreign investors and domestic buyers of multiple homes: From the Straits Times: From Thursday (Dec 16), the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) that must be paid for purchases of residential properties will be raised. The total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) for borrowers will also be tightened, while

3

US house prices soar from coast-to-coast

Goldman Sachs has released a bunch of interesting charts on the US housing market, which has experienced its biggest and broadest price boom since the Global Financial Crisis. As shown below, median house prices across the US have surged by 17.7% over the past year with most of that growth coming in the past six

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Blame the demand-side for soaring property values

The housing industry and policy makers tend to blame a ‘lack of supply’ for soaring property prices. They claim that unaffordable housing is caused primarily by restrictive planning and sluggish construction rates, and if these were eased then prices would fall and homes would become affordable. A new paper from the Federal Reserve challenges this

12

Ireland shows how to successfully wean off property

I am currently pulling property-related data for an upcoming subscriber special report on the property markets of English-speaking nations. Yesterday I uncovered a treasure trove of data on Ireland, which has managed to successfully deleverage from one of the world’s biggest property bubbles leading into the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The below charts tell

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Sweden ousts government over housing crisis

In Australia, major parties bribe voters with policies designed to inflate housing values in the knowledge that home owners will vote with their wallet. These demand-side policies come in a variety of guises, including first home buyer grants, stamp duty exemptions, and tax concessions. Sweden has emerged as an interesting contrast, whereby incumbent Prime Minister

16

Global house prices are skyrocketing

CNN has released data showing the synchronised house price boom taking place across rich nations. According to CNN, real house prices across 37 OECD nations rose by 6.7% in calendar year 2020, which was the fastest pace of growth in 20 years: As expected, rock bottom mortgage rates are behind the price growth: Rock bottom

9

Is Jacinda Ardern a “housing revolutionary”

Morgan Stanley’s chief global strategist wrote an article in the Financial Times (republished in The AFR) suggesting New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, is a revolutionary for ordering the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to add stabilising home prices to its remit: Housing bubbles are the worst… When prices fall, it can take years

22

Demographia: Australia 3rd most unaffordable housing market

The 2021 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey has been released and, once again, it ranks Australia as having one of the most expensive housing markets out of the countries surveyed. This year’s report assesses 92 major markets (metropolitan areas) in eight nations for the third quarter of 2020. The nations assessed are: Australia, Canada, Hong

5

RBNZ tightens LVR clamps on “speculative” property market

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) yesterday performed a stunning U-turn, reintroducing loan-to-value (LVR) mortgage restrictions just 10 months after such restrictions were lifted to aid the nation’s COVID-19 response. Under the changes, most investors will need 40% deposits and most owner-occupiers 20% deposits; although there are explicit carve-outs for new residential construction: The

2

Foreign buyers drive up Canadian property prices

A new peer-reviewed study from Simon Fraser University (SFU) shows that the “decoupling” of property prices from incomes in Metro Vancouver and to a lesser extent Toronto has been caused by “significant sums of foreign capital that have been excluded from official statistics”. In particular, Richmond, West Vancouver, the city of Vancouver and Burnaby have

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Hyperinflation hits New Zealand property after RBNZ drops ball

New Zealand house prices rocketed in October to another record high, according to the REINZ: Extraordinary growth is being recorded, with the seasonally adjusted median price surging by 4.7% in October and by 20.0% year-on-year: Sales volumes have also soared, rising 25.8% year-on-year: The price rises are being driven by the top half of the

5

New Zealand property bubbles

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has released its house price data for September, which has reported booming sales and record high prices: As shown above, the seasonally adjusted median house price soared 14.1% year-on-year in September, with Auckland rising 11.8% year-on-year and regions outside of Auckland rising 16.3%. Sales volumes have also