Iron ore market turns materially more bearish

Wednesday, 17 January 2024

A few months ago, Goldman flipped bullish iron ore after being bearish all year. Today, they stick to that by ignoring their own data.

Seasonal consolidation. The near 50% rally in iron ore prices over H2 last year has partially reversed so far in 2024.

We view this current phase of price pressure as primarily reflecting the liquidity tightening impact from onshore trading regulation on what was a significantly net long market, rather than a decisive bearish turn in fundamentals.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.