Reads:

Global Macro

• Central Banks, King Canute and rate tide – Reuters
• Metals spend the year pinned between old and new cycles – Reuters
• The urgent need for shared commitment and an Earth System Treaty– Pearls & Irritations
• COP28 a “tragedy for the planet” as Stockholm Syndrome took hold– Pearls & Irritations
• ESG funds suffer weaker demand despite help from tech-sector performance – Reuters

Americas

• China import concerns spur US to launch semiconductor supply chain review – Reuters
• US labor market resilience keeps economy afloat as year ends – Reuters
• First protests in Argentina against Milei’s austerity plan – BBC
• The Federal Reserve could do what was thought impossible: Defeat inflation without a steep recession– AP
• Why the U.S. Is Pumping More Oil Than Any Country in History– Atlantic
• The evolution of firm markups in the US and implications for headline and core inflation– VoxEU

Europe

• No recession, but no take-off for the UK’s economy – BBC
• Germany’s economy seen shrinking again in the current quarter as business confidence declines– AP
• Bank of England holds interest rates at a 15-year high despite worries about the economy– AP
• How sensitive are Europeans to income losses related to climate policies?– Bruegel
• The European Union should do better than confiscate Russia’s reserve money– Bruegel
• Drop in UK inflation is welcome but does not erase two years of pain – Guardian
• Cost of private renting in UK rising faster than ever, says ONS – Guardian
• Why Labour may be forced to rejoin the European single market – New Statesman

Asia

• China bans export of rare earth processing tech over national security – Reuters
• Indian consumer borrowing surges, raising fears of defaults – Nikkei Asia
• US eyes tariffs on China EVs, solar cells – Taipei Times
• Why China should allow diverse viewpoints of its economy to avoid risks of 3 biases – SCMP
• China and India got their way in COP28 agreement in Dubai – Nikkei Asia
• China’s spy agency now watches for doomsayers – Nikkei Asia
• Japanese government lifts economic growth estimates – Japan Times
• Hong Kong revives investment residencies to attract the wealthy – Nikkei Asia

Local

• Australia is getting a better grip on immigration – Nikkei Asia
• ACCC urges Treasury to strengthen is powers to review implications of business mergers for consumers – ABC
• It’s not just about accumulating super. Australians need to learn how to spend their retirement savings– The Conversation
• Interest rates will eventually fall but it’s a bit early for borrowers to break out the champagne– The Conversation
• Amid allegations of price gouging, it’s time for big supermarkets to come clean on how they price their products– The Conversation
• An austere Christmas is on the cards – but don’t say recession– The Conversation
• There’s a glimmer of hope in the mid-year budget update, but inflation is still a big challenge– The Conversation
• Budget update forecasts deficit of $1.1 billion this financial year– The Conversation
• The government is bringing immigration back to ‘normal levels’ but cuts are not as dramatic as they seem– The Conversation
• How getting a second opinion can stop you being ripped off– The Conversation
• Australia has one of the weakest tax systems for redistribution among industrial nations – the Stage 3 tax cuts will make it worse– The Conversation
• The Albanese Government’s economic management and the cost-of-living crisis– Pearls & Irritations
• Australia sleepwalking into catastrophic conflict with China– Pearls & Irritations
• Ukraine: what did the government know and when?– Pearls & Irritations
• Freedom of information laws: grand in theory, dismal in practice– Pearls & Irritations
• Closing Loopholes Bill confronts the new realities of self-employment– Pearls & Irritations
• WA government’s mid-year budget review presents a nice set of numbers, but those doing it tough want more help – ABC

…and furthermore…

• AI image-generators are being trained on explicit photos of children, a study shows– AP
• Green shipping corridors gaining momentum – BBC
• Nuclear energy is more expensive than renewables, CSIRO report finds – ABC
• Biofuels comeback will give West a rare energy win – Reuters
• The value of skill complementarity, especially in artificial intelligence– Bruegel
• Gender equality and reboundability in the labour market: lessons from COVID-19– Bruegel
• The trust factor: The hidden engine of economic specialisation– VoxEU
• Consumers’ response to ESG: Evidence from barcode-level sales data– VoxEU
• Incumbency effects in international trade and the lasting implications of historical trade barriers– VoxEU
• ‘Computer says no’: more employers are using AI to recruit, increasing the risk of discrimination– The Conversation
• How Ozempic could affect the health of the global economy in more ways than one – ABC
• Could there be a gold rush for buried hydrogen? – BBC

Videos & Podcasts:

Peter Zeihan – the end of more

Jamie Dimon – The Dire state of the global economy

Jensen Huang – The future of AI

Chicago-Booth – The state of the Global Economy and the choices facing policymakers

DW – The global debt crisis

Larry Summers – The US Economy

FiveThirtyEight – have progressives won the economic debate?

Martin Wolf – The crisis of democratic capitalism

Peter Zeihan – China is done

LSE – China India and Global Order

Yasheng Huang – China

The Global economy and international fixed income

Indian Students ditch Canada. Hello Australia!

Macro Voices Jim Bianco – 21 December  – The US Fed

Macro Voices Matt Barrie – 14 December – The AI Apocalypse……everyone should have a listen to this