Data from CoreLogic shows that there was strong unseasonal growth in new home listings across the combined capital cities in the four weeks to 13 August.
The number of new listings was 1.5% higher year-on-year, and 11.8% higher than the five-year average.
CoreLogic research director, Tim Lawless, says demand has not kept pace with the increase in new listings, so overall supply levels are starting to rise for the first time in a while.
“Historically, based on the pre-COVID decade average, new listings added to the national housing market drop by 5.2% between autumn and winter before rising by an average of 9.8% between winter and spring”.
“In contrast, through the winter season to-date, new listings have risen by 13.2% this year, driven mostly by a 17.9% rise across the capital cities”.
“Over the four weeks ending August 13, the number of new listings added to the Australian housing market was 3.3% above the previous five-year average; the first time we have seen the flow of new listings rise above the five-year benchmark since September last year”.
Source: CoreLogic
As shown above, listings have bounced hardest in Sydney and Melbourne.
However, overall listings remain tight, down 16.8% year-on-year across the combined capital cities.
Still, “more recently as the flow of new listings gathers some pace, demand hasn’t quite kept pace”, notes Lawless.
“The past four weeks has seen advertised stock levels edging 0.3% higher, led by a 2.2% rise in total listings across the capitals and offset by a 2.2% fall across the combined regional areas”.
This lift in stock is easing house price growth.
“Cities where advertised supply levels have risen have also seen a reduction in the pace of value growth”, notes Lawless.
“Sydney home values were rising at the monthly rate of 1.8% in May, halving to 0.9% by the end of July and slowing further in August based on changes in CoreLogic’s daily index”.
“Melbourne’s pace of value growth has eased from 0.9% in May to 0.3% in July and home values edged 0.1% lower across the ACT in July”.
“Considering advertised supply levels are now starting to rise in some cities, selling conditions in these areas are likely to become more competitive through spring”.
BresicWhitney CEO Thomas McGlynn also claims the firm’s listings have risen by 50% compared with pre-pandemic levels.
“I think we’re probably going to have the highest volume of properties listed on our website this spring since the start of COVID”, he said.
“We’ve already seen listings double in many parts of inner Sydney over the past two months, which means more competitive selling conditions”.
In my view, price growth will ease into 2024 before reaccelerating once the RBA begins its next rate cutting cycle.
