2023 Barf List: Will Twiggy or Gina go bust first?

The AFR is out with its 2023 Barf List.

There’s no love lost at the top of the Rich List. Gina Rinehart and Andrew Forrest, both in their 60s, have more in common than they’d like to admit. But they don’t see eye to eye on many levels, most notably the future of fossil fuels in Australia.

The Barf List of going to change substantially over the next year and even more over the next five.

China is going ex-growth. Worse for the Top Barfers, it is doing so by moving away from the construction mania that devours 40% of the world’s steel.

Worst of all, within five years, there will be 150mt more iron ore supply than there is today. Most of it captured by China in Simandou.

This is going to trigger an interminable cost curve shakeout as 300-400mt of iron ore will have to come out of global supply.

Andrew is better placed for this than Gina. In fact, there has to be a question about the viability of Roy Hill in the long run.

This chart is from 2021 but tells the tale. Andrew’s dirt is cheaper and Roy Hill sits roughly on the cut-off point.

As well, Andrew has moved much earlier to develop higher-quality magnetite ore, and to diversify.

Not that I think this will save his fortune.

But neither will rock the top of the Barf List for much longer.

Neither will Clive.