Holiday retail binge pressures RBA

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Exclusive data from the Australian Retailers Association’s (ARA) partnership with Westpac DataX shows that Australia’s pre-Christmas spending beat all expectations, hitting a record-breaking $74.5 billion – up 8.6% on 2021.

Boxing Day trading also experienced unprecedented growth, rising 15.3% from 2021 to $1.23 billion.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra says it is an unparalleled result after several years of disruption. Department stores drove the greatest growth on Boxing Day – up 23.6% on 2021 – to notch $149.4 million in sales. Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services were also up 22.8% and clothing and apparel sales were 19.8% higher than a year ago.

“These fabulous results really tie a bow on an extremely successful year for retail as we head into a period of greater uncertainty in 2023”, Zahra said.

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The results won’t please the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and makes it more likely that it will lift interest rates again at its first meeting in early February.

That said, other spending indicators leading up to Christmas were softening, so the consumer picture is clouded.

All eyes will be on Australian consumers in 2023, given household consumption is the key driver of the nation’s economic growth:

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Quarterly household consumption

Where the Aussie consumer goes, so does the economy.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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