Expect this to get much worse as US consumption hiccups in the months ahead and inventory detocking intensifies. Nomura with the note.
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, or NELI for short, is made up of nine forward-looking components and has a three-month lead time. NELI has correctly warned of past major turning points and is less distorted by base effects than official export data, making it a useful gauge of Asia’s underlying export growth.
NELI is signalling a deepening downturn in Asia’s export growth, as its latest reading plunged from 89.9 to 85.7, the largest drop in five months and the lowest reading since August 2020. Key drivers include weakness in China’simports, indicators of the global tech cycle and a steeper decline in Shanghai’s Shipping Exchange Freight Index.
