Daily iron ore price update (the phony rally)

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The ferrous complex was strong on November 25, 2022:

Nothing has changed on the ground in China. Goldman has more.


China’s steel production down 8% m/m (+12% y/y on easy comps). Followingthe recent run in iron ore prices, steel mills’ margins have further declined and insome cases remain negative. Our channel checks suggest that recent pick up in ironore prices was not driven by steel mills’ buying, but rather driven by futures price growth triggered by improving sentiment on the back of China’s re-opening andproperty measures, but end steel demand remains weak. We would not besurprised if steel mills decide to cut production in the last months of the year due to weak demand and margins.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.