ROK is always a terrific leading indicator for global trade. Growth is turning to shrinkage now but my view remains that much worse is ahead as the Fed breaks something large enough to give the US consumer pause and the subsequent inventory unwind smashes into north Asia. Pantheon with the latest.
More warning signs from Korea for global trade
Korea’s September manufacturing PMI adds weight to our belief that the slowdown in exports has further to run. The new export orders index remained below 50 for the seventh month in a row, and is at its second lowest level since July 2020, despite a small recovery from August. Korean exports, and hence global trade, will likely continue to slow in Q4. Slowing growth also creates a headache for the BoK.
