Canada house prices plunge at fastest ever rate

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Canada has joined the global house price rout, with the Teranet house price indices plunging 2.4% in September at the combined capital city level, with Toronto (-3.2%), Vancouver (-2.8%) and Montreal (-1.6%) each falling:

Canadian house prices

Values declined 3.9% over the September quarter at the combined capital city level, led by Toronto (-7.2%) and Vancouver (-4.2%):

Canada quarterly house price growth
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Teranet noted that “before seasonal adjustment, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index fell 3.1% from August to September, the largest monthly decline on record since the index began in 1999 and shattering the previous month’s record decline of 2.4%”.

According to National Bank, home prices are falling faster than they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Prices have dropped 7.0% since the May peak over the same period, and during the GFC they declined 9.2% peak-to-trough.

At the current rate of decline, a little over one more month could see prices beat the GFC decline:

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Canadian housing bust

As shown below, the Bank of Canada has mirrored the aggressive rate hikes of the US Federal Reserve:

Interest rate trajectories
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Therefore, it is little wonder that Canadian house prices are plunging.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.