“Incredible” fixed mortgage rates soar into stratosphere

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Last week, Westpac and ANZ hiked their fixed mortgage rates by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively, which more than doubled fixed rates from a year earlier.

Yesterday, Australia’s biggest bank CBA joined the fold hiking its fixed rates by a whopping 1.4% across all loan terms:

CBA fixed rate hikes

This has taken CBA’s fixed mortgage rates to more than double or triple the level of a year ago, depending on the loan term:

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CBA fixed rate change

RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall described the hikes as “incredible” and expects other banks to follow CBA’s aggressive lead:

“Today’s fixed rate hikes from Australia’s biggest bank are anything but typical”.

“The bank is responding to the rising cost of fixed rate funding and a market that refuses to believe the RBA will stop hiking the cash rate at around 2.50 per cent,” she said.

“Less than a year ago, CBA was still offering one fixed rate under 2 per cent. Today the bank’s lowest fixed rate is just under 5 per cent, while the majority are well over 6 per cent.

“It’s incredible to see fixed rates move this dramatically in such a short space of time. The sub-2 percent fixed rates from 12 months ago now seem like a distant dream.

“We expect other banks will follow in CBA’s wake. Westpac and NAB’s fixed rates are now, in many cases, over a percentage point lower. It’s only a matter of time before these banks hike fixed rates again”.

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Fixed mortgage rates are now universally high across the major banks:

Fixed mortgage rates across banks

Variable rates are currently much lower, but will catch up with fixed rates as the Reserve Bank hikes aggressively.

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If the futures market gets its way, and the official cash rate hits 3.15% by Christmas and 3.7% by June 2023, then the average discount variable mortgage rate will soar to 7%:

Australia's discount variable mortgage rate

Futures market: 7% discount variable mortgage rate by June 2023.

Then there will be blood on the mortgage streets and the housing market will crash.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.