The ferrous complex was mixed on
It was a genuinely stupid bounce in iron ore futures from a market that really has dragged its anchor in terms of fundamental analysis over the last two years as Dalian night trading has become the dominant price-setter. I suspect it is Wall Street loons that are to blame.
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The steel and iron ore market is still getting worse. The property “bailout” is a nothing burger. Starts have further to fall. The infrastructure stimulus is only backfilling lost revenues. And on the ground signals are getting worse. CISA output in mid-July:
Steel inventory rose 6% over the same timeframe. What does that tell you?
It remains my view that H2 steel output is not only not going to recover, but it is also going to be as bad if not worse than 2021.