Still no hard evidence of a wage-inflation spiral

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Recent statements by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) suggested that wage pressures were building based on spurious business liaison ‘evidence’.

Business groups have also scare mongered that “unsustainable” wage claims were adding to the nation’s inflationary pressures.

Yet the actual data on wages shows zero evidence of a wage-inflationary spiral, with Australia’s real unit labour cost (ULC), which according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics “are an indicator of the average cost of labour per unit of output produced in the economy” and “are a measure of the costs associated with the employment of labour, adjusted for labour productivity”, collapsing 6.3% below their pre-pandemic level in the March quarter of 2022:

Real unit labour costs

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.