The ferrous complex was weak on June 15, 2022:

The mystery is this. Chinese steel output is still insane, down just 3% year on year (though it is 6%+ YTD):
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But the main drivers of steel consumption are terrible. Housing starts are back in the dark ages:

In rolling annual terms, which might give us a better idea about the timing of commodity demand, they are down about halfway to where they will bottom so that can explain some of the demand gap:

The demand gap is not being filled by infrastructure. Cement is a great proxy on that and production there is terrible yet inventories are still climbing:

Given these two sectors account for at least half of Chinese steel demand, we’re looking at roughly a 10% drop in steel demand so far or roughly 130mt of steel.
So, where is the other 100mt going? Post-Ukraine exports can perhaps absorb a third of it. But the rest?
What we can say is that pig iron output (that is, blast furnace production) was at 80.5mt, its highest level ever:

That helps explain some of the pressure on iron ore prices despite the mystery of phantom Chinese steel.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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